Note: Sorry for the delay on the rankings this week. Parenthood, man.
What is the ATS Top 25?
It’s very similar to the AP Top 25 or the Coaches Poll but it’s based off how college football teams do against the spread. Georgia, who is the No. 1 team in both the AP and Coaches Poll, could start the season 3-0 but 0-3 against the spread and could be out of my ATS Top 25 for Week 4. Each week my rankings will drop on Monday at 12 p.m. (CT). When you look at the report/list, use it to your betting advantage. These rankings are based on who I think will have the best chance of covering the spread each and every week along with throughout the rest of the season.
@KotaCapperPace’s ATS Top 25
1. Michigan
2022 ATS record: 8-5-1
2023 ATS record: 0-1
Last week: #2
Why #1? Michigan failed to cover against ECU last week but big numbers are tough to cover out of the gate. Now the Wolverines take on a UNLV team that beat Bryant (FCS) 44-14 in Week 1 without throwing a touchdown. Michigan should be able to stop the Rebels rushing attack and will make it tough for them to air it out.
Week 1: 37-point favorite vs. UNLV
2. East Carolina
2022 ATS record: 8-5
2023 ATS record: 1-0
Last week: NR
Why #2? East Carolina kept it “close” against Michigan last week and now they head home to take on a Marshall team that edged out Albany 21-17 in Week 1. They say teams make the biggest improvements from Week 1 to Week 2 and I think we see that with the Pirates on Saturday.
Week 2: 3-point underdog vs. Marshall
3. Washington
2022 ATS record: 8-5
2023 ATS record: 1-0
Last week: #1
Why #3? Washington made easy work of Boise State last week but now they face a Tulsa defense that could pose some problems. The Golden Hurricanes’ defense was solid against the pass last season and they brought in one of the top defensive coordinators from the FCS in Chris Polizzi. I expect the Huskies to win and they deserve to be in the Top 3 with their early season schedule but I actually think Tulsa keeps this closer than the number says.
Week 2: 34-point favorite vs. Tulsa
4. UCF
2022 ATS record: 7-7
2023 ATS record: 1-0
Last week: NR
Why #4? UCF made a huge jump in my rankings this week and that’s because of the matchup they have this week. Boise State couldn’t stop a high powered offense last week. I need to see defensive improvement from the Broncos before I take them seriously. The Knights hung up 56 points on Kent State last week and John Rhys Plumlee is a strong dual-threat quarterback that should carve up this Boise State defense on the blue field.
Week 2: 3.5-point favorite @ Boise State
5. Oklahoma
2022 ATS record: 5-8-1
2023 ATS record: 1-0
Last week: #3
Why #5? I’m not sold on Oklahoma’s defense yet as they throttled Arkansas State last week. Now they take on an SMU team that can score. The Sooners should win but I could see this being a two score game. They deserve to be in the Top 5 considering what comes after the Mustangs but I need to see it before I believe the Sooner defense is better than it was last year.
Week 2: 15.5-point favorite vs. SMU
6. USC
2022 ATS record: 8-6
2023 ATS record: 1-1
Last week: #22
Week 1: 29-point favorite vs. Stanford
7. Kentucky
2022 ATS record: 7-5-1
2023 ATS record: 1-0
Last week: #6
Week 2: vs. Eastern Kentucky
8. Iowa
2022 ATS record: 8-5
2023 ATS record: 1-0
Last week: #10
Week 2: 3.5-point favorite v@ Iowa State
9. Oregon
2022 ATS record: 8-5
2023 ATS record: 1-0
Last week: #8
Week 2: 6.5-point favorite @ Texas Tech
10. Duke
2022 ATS record: 9-4
2023 ATS record: 1-0
Last week: NR
Week 2: vs. Lafayette
11. Penn State
2022 ATS record: 9-3-1
2023 ATS record: 1-0
Last week: #13
Week 2: vs. Delaware
12. Tennessee
2022 ATS record: 10-3
2023 ATS record: 1-0
Last week: #14
Week 2: vs. Austin Peay
13. Notre Dame
2022 ATS record: 6-6-1
2023 ATS record: 2-0
Last week: #21
Week 2: 7-point favorite @ NC State
14. North Carolina
2022 ATS record: 6-7-1
2023 ATS record: 1-0
Last week: #24
Week 2: 18.5-point favorite vs. App State
15. Georgia
2022 ATS record: 8-7
2023 ATS record: 0-1
Last week: #25
Week 2: 42.5-point favorite vs. Ball State
16. Oregon State
2022 ATS record: 11-2
2023 ATS record: 1-0
Last week: #16
Week 2: vs. UC Davis
17. Wisconsin
2022 ATS record: 6-7
2023 ATS record: 0-1
Last week: #7
Week 2: 6-point favorite @ Washington State
18. Troy
2022 ATS record: 11-3
2023 ATS record: 0-1
Last week: #17
Week 2: 17-point underdog @ Kansas State
19. Jacksonville State
2022 ATS record: 0-1
2023 ATS record: 2-0
Last week: NR
Week 2: 14.5-point underdog @ Coastal Carolina
20. Tulane
2022 ATS record: 11-3
2023 ATS record: 1-0
Last week: #15
Week 1: 7.5-point underdog vs. Ole Miss
21. Texas State
2022 ATS record: 5-7
2023 ATS record: 1-0
Last week: NR
Week 2: 13-point underdog @ UTSA
22. Wyoming
2022 ATS record: 6-6-1
2023 ATS record: 1-0
Last week: NR
Week 2: vs. Portland State
23. Minnesota
2022 ATS record: 7-6
2023 ATS record: 0-1
Last week: #23
Week 2: 20.5-point favorite vs. Eastern Michigan
24. LSU
2022 ATS record: 8-6
2023 ATS record: 0-1
Last week: #12
Week 2: vs. Grambling
25. Eastern Michigan
2022 ATS record: 7-5-1
2023 record: 0-1
Last week: #5
Week 2: 20.5-point underdog @ Minnesota
Dropped out: Clemson, Ohio, Boise State, Illinois, Ohio State
