Sometimes, you just need to take a day away from bets. Sometimes, that’s because you’re on a cold streak and sometimes, it’s because the opportunity isn’t there. Tuesday was the latter, as I didn’t see much that I liked yesterday. And so, despite two strong days to start 2023, I stayed away yesterday.
Given how the slate turned out, I like that decision. When Texas gives up 116 points in regulation, it’s a weird day. When Virginia fails to hold a double-digit halftime lead, it’s a weird day. Throw in a ranked New Mexico loses to a 6-8 Fresno State that came in ranked 352nd in offense, and you’re better off staying away.
Today’s slate looks a lot better. Let’s hope to keep up the momentum. Here are my best plays for January 4.
VILLANOVA TTO 76.5, -110
The Patrick Ewing experiment has flamed out horribly. Ewing seemed like a solid hire for Georgetown when he came back to Washington: alum, big name in the sport, proven coach from being an NBA assistant. But this has gone even worse than Scott Frost at Nebraska: Georgetown has lost 24 straight Big East games and last beat a Power 6 opponent on Dec. 11, 2021. This season, they’ve lost in overtime to an awful South Carolina squad, managed to fall to fellow Washington school American (who Georgetown wouldn’t even schedule in the 1990s) and they’ve dropped five straight to Syracuse, Xavier, Connecticut, DePaul and Butler.
Not one of those five saw the Hoyas hold their foe under 80 points. Villanova isn’t terribly strong either this season, but the Wildcats are at least playing close games against good teams. They shoot well and are deadly from the stripe, and they should hit their number. Villanova -9.5 is also tempting.
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE TTU 61, -110
When Haslam sees a dud, we see opportunity. Mississippi Valley State doesn’t do anything particularly well on offense, and Alabama A&M’s defense has acquitted itself well lately. The Bulldogs just held Arkansas-Pine Bluff to 59, and before that, they kept both Illinois and Vanderbilt to 68 and 70 respectively. Alabama A&M even had Ohio State sweating for a half before the Buckeyes hit the gas.
Contrast that with the Delta Devils: They’ve only topped 61 points three times: Tulane, Missouri and North Alabama. The losses to Tulane and Missouri were by 20+ points, and Alabama A&M doesn’t play that kind of offensive game. The Bulldogs should lock down the Delta Devils here.
PENN STATE +4.5, -110
The past two meetings between the Nittany Lions and the Wolverines have been decided by four points or less. I think Penn State has improved since last season and Michigan has gone the other direction, which leads me to the Nittany Lions on the road. Penn State shoots very well from deep and Michigan’s defense is beatable, which should allow the Nittany Lions to stick close and perhaps even win.
LONGWOOD -7.5, -110
Longwood’s playing very well right now and has put the Big South on notice. The Lancers won their first two league games with ease, showing last year was no fluke. Charleston Southern brings in the worst-rated defense in Division I, and Longwood’s offense is rolling right now. The Lancers dropped 104 on South Carolina State and 87 on High Point, and their team total of 77 looks manageable. But I think the spread’s the better move.
MIAMI -6.5, -110
Georgia Tech has played seven Power 6 opponents this year. They played well twice, against Utah on a neutral floor and in a rivalry game with Georgia. Otherwise, the Yellow Jackets keep getting swatted. Two nights after the Utah battle, Marquette rolled them by 24. Iowa has plenty of problems right now, but still crushed Georgia Tech by 16. And the Jackets’ average margin of defeat to Clemson, Virginia and North Carolina in ACC play is 15.7 points.
None of that bodes well for hosting Miami. The Hurricanes managed to score 68 on Rutgers, and we know all about the Scarlet Knights’ penchant for defense. Miami shoots very well inside the arc and Tech plays little defense. With the Jackets already losers by double digits in two home ACC games, Miami looks solid.
