Any time the computer gets a perfect pick, it’s a great showing. As you’ve probably figured out by now, it’s hard to pick games correctly with the spread, and it’s even harder for the computer to get the margin of victory exactly right. That’s why the computer’s magnum opus remains the 2011 4A Iowa state title game (if you don’t know, Idaho and Iowa high school football were my lab to test out my computer’s formula to see if this would work).
Back then, as I was covering Iowa high schools, I used my own knowledge of the teams we covered to pick a score that fit the computer’s margin of victory. For that game, Valley and Bettendorf were two defensive powerhouses, and with the computer liking Valley by 2, I made the computer’s pick Valley 16, Bettendorf 14.
Final score? Valley 17, Bettendorf 14. Hard to do much better than that.
Last week, the computer managed two perfect picks, and both came from the Big Ten. Ohio State handled Michigan State by 29, and Nebraska edged Rutgers by a point. Hopefully, we get another one out of the Power 5 plays. Here are the computer’s power conference picks.
ACC
LAST WEEK: 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS
MIAMI (-7.5) BY 6 OVER VIRGINIA TECH
CLEMSON (-3.5) BY 7 OVER FLORIDA STATE
SYRACUSE (-3.5) BY 2 OVER NC STATE
NORTH CAROLINA (-7) BY 4 OVER DUKE
I think the computer might be on to something with Duke. The Blue Devils are clearly a better team than they were last year and North Carolina is a step back from where it was a season ago. Plus, in the Tar Heels’ past eight trips to Durham, Duke +7 has covered five times and the Blue Devils won the game outright on three occasions. I might throw Miami and Syracuse in a moneyline parlay, as N.C. State is a poor traveler and Virginia Tech is just plain poor no matter where it plays.
BIG 12
LAST WEEK 3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS
BAYLOR (-3.5) BY 11 OVER WEST VIRGINIA
TEXAS (-16.5) BY 15 OVER IOWA STATE
KANSAS (+9) BY 3 OVER OKLAHOMA
OKLAHOMA STATE (+3.5) BY 1 OVER TCU
One of two things will happen with Oklahoma. Either the Sooners will save face after getting humiliated by Texas and people will see this as a flawed but decent team again, or the facade will be ripped away once and for all. Kansas is getting points for one reason: the Jayhawks haven’t beaten the Sooners since 1997, a string of 17 straight losses. But I’m getting 2007 Nebraska vibes with this Oklahoma team, and I remember Kansas tearing apart that Cornhusker team. Elsewhere, I think Oklahoma State isn’t getting the respect it deserves because people expect the Cowboys to get caught looking ahead to Texas. I think they sneak one out here.
BIG TEN
LAST WEEK: 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS, 2 PERFECT PICKS
ILLINOIS (+6.5) BY 3 OVER MINNESOTA
MARYLAND (-11.5) BY 12 OVER INDIANA
MICHIGAN (-6.5) BY 14 OVER PENN STATE
WISCONSIN (-7.5) BY 5 OVER MICHIGAN STATE
PURDUE (-13.5) BY 20 OVER NEBRASKA
I know Penn State is better than what it has shown the past two weeks. I just don’t know if Penn State will actually play like it’s better than it’s shown. Michigan also isn’t playing up to its potential, which is one reason I advocated for the under on the CFB podcast this week. I do really like Illinois to cover this 6.5 points against Minnesota, as I think the Illini can slow down Mohamed Ibrahim and keep the Gophers’ attack from getting started.
PAC-12
LAST WEEK: 3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS
CALIFORNIA (-14.5) BY 20 OVER COLORADO
WASHINGTON (-14.5) BY 14 OVER ARIZONA
UTAH (-3) BY 4 OVER USC
WASHINGTON STATE (+3.5) BY 2 OVER OREGON STATE
The computer apparently really loves Washington State, even after the Cougars failed to meet expectations against USC. I think the Cougars are getting a bit of a nudge from beating Wisconsin when people still thought Wisconsin was good, and I might stay away from this one as a result. I do like Utah handling SC at elevation, and Colorado is just a train wreck at this point that Cal should handle.
SEC
LAST WEEK: 6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS
MISSISSIPPI (-14.5) BY 17 OVER AUBURN
GEORGIA (-38.5) BY 38 OVER VANDERBILT
ALABAMA (-7.5) BY 7 OVER TENNESSEE
FLORIDA (-3.5) BY 1 OVER LSU
MISSISSIPPI STATE (-4.5) BY 7 OVER KENTUCKY
I love SEC Shorts. I hate SEC spreads. The SEC has been one of the trickiest plays to make this season because the computer’s numbers are often right up to where the book has the game, and that’s happened again here. In this situation, I might tease Vanderbilt at +43 and Alabama -3, as I think that’s where the value might lie in this situation. Mississippi State ML also looks like it has value with Kentucky’s quarterback situation a problem.
