Week 5 finally came to an end with the demise of SMU, and the computer should finally be over its love affair with the Mustangs after that rout. SMU has done a fine job of keeping close with decent teams, which had the computer thinking the Mustangs were solid themselves. Obviously, that’s now proven false.
We’re ready for Week 6, and hopefully, we’ll see a solid set of spread winners. Here are the computer’s top power conference plays.
ACC
LAST WEEK: 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS
LOUISVILLE (-2.5) BY 5 OVER VIRGINIA
PITTSBURGH (-14.5) BY 19 OVER VIRGINIA TECH
DUKE (-3.5) BY 7 OVER GEORGIA TECH
NORTH CAROLINA (+3.5) BY 6 OVER MIAMI
CLEMSON (-20.5) BY 20 OVER BOSTON COLLEGE
N.C. STATE (-3) BY 6 OVER FLORIDA STATE
WAKE FOREST (-17.5) BY 24 OVER ARMY
The lines that intrigue me most stem off the same game: Pittsburgh’s stunner to Georgia Tech. Yes, it shook a lot of people’s faith in the Panthers, but as Alan Saunders of Pittsburgh Sports Now points out, this is what Pittsburgh is under Pat Narduzzi. The Panthers have that occasional head-scratcher that they have no business losing, but they’re still a lot better than Virginia Tech. Likewise, Georgia Tech isn’t as good as it looked against Pitt and should cool off against a resurgent Duke. If the Blue Devils want to make a bowl, they have to find two wins out of their last seven. Without a doubt, their three best shots are Boston College, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, so this game is critical for Duke.
BIG 12
LAST WEEK: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS
TEXAS (-9.5) BY 8 OVER OKLAHOMA
TCU (-7) BY 9 OVER KANSAS
IOWA STATE (+2) BY 4 OVER KANSAS STATE
OKLAHOMA STATE (-9.5) BY 19 OVER TEXAS TECH
The computer still doesn’t believe in Kansas, and after watching the Iowa State-Kansas game, I can’t say I blame it. The Jayhawks played well and the Cyclones played poorly, and Iowa State still should have had Kansas beaten. The hard reality of Kansas’ situation is that the computer would currently have the Jayhawks as an underdog against everyone left on their schedule. They might be a feel-good story, but they have to have a lot go their way. On the other side of the ledger, I think the computer is still putting too much weight on K-State losing to Tulane. This is one where I think the computer might be misreading the situation (which means bet the farm on Iowa State, given my track record there).
BIG TEN
LAST WEEK: 4-3 SU, 1-6 ATS
NEBRASKA (-3) BY 1 OVER RUTGERS
MICHIGAN (-22.5) BY 28 OVER INDIANA
MARYLAND (-3.5) BY 4 OVER PURDUE
WISCONSIN (-9.5) BY 13 OVER NORTHWESTERN
OHIO STATE (-26.5) BY 29 OVER MICHIGAN STATE
ILLINOIS (-3.5) BY 6 OVER IOWA
My podcast colleague Corey and I have discussed Nebraska and Rutgers at length, and I do think this number is legit. I just don’t see Nebraska putting up points on the Rutgers defense, which has been outstanding against everyone not named Ohio State (and even wasn’t terrible against the Buckeyes. I also think the computer is right to back Illinois in this situation; the Illini beat Wisconsin in a similar manner to how they can beat Iowa, and the Hawkeyes’ offense is not equipped to respond.
PAC-12
LAST WEEK: 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS
UTAH (-3.5) BY 10 OVER UCLA
USC (-12.5) BY 5 OVER WASHINGTON STATE
OREGON STATE (-7) BY 9 OVER STANFORD
WASHINGTON (-13.5) BY 6 OVER ARIZONA STATE
OREGON (-13.5) BY 12 OVER ARIZONA
The computer saw UCLA’s win over Washington coming, but now it’s heading in the other direction and backing Utah to cruise in the Rose Bowl. The computer has been very impressed with Utah’s response after losing to Florida and believes the Utes are the best the Pac-12 has to offer. The computer still isn’t sold on USC either, as the Trojans are giving 12.5 to Washington State but the computer only has the Cougars catching 5. Washington State made the computer (and me) look good last week against California last week, and I think they hang around here.
SEC
LAST WEEK: 5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS
TENNESSEE (-3) BY 1 OVER LSU
MISSISSIPPI STATE (-9.5) BY 3 OVER ARKANSAS
FLORIDA (-10.5) BY 5 OVER MISSOURI
GEORGIA (-29.5) BY 31 OVER AUBURN
MISSISSIPPI (-16.5) BY 15 OVER VANDERBILT
KENTUCKY (-6) BY 11 OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
ALABAMA (-23.5) BY 30 OVER TEXAS A&M
This Mississippi State line is high because Vegas does not expect KJ Jefferson to play. If he does, this will be a rather foolish line on the part of the books. Elsewhere, I think Kentucky is losing too much respect after losing a tight one at Mississippi. The Wildcats look like a genuine contender for a high-level SEC bowl and South Carolina just isn’t on that same level, yet Kentucky is at home giving less than a touchdown. They look like the play.
