Over in the Group of 5, the Sun Belt was where the computer did its best work, sweeping the five games straight up and hitting three spreads correctly. Independents, not so much, as Army turned in a horrid performance against Georgia State and completely ruined my pick of the week.
Hopefully, the computer can get these smaller leagues figured out soon. Here are its non-Power 5 plays for Week 6.
AMERICAN
LAST WEEK: 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS
MEMPHIS (-2.5) BY 4 OVER HOUSTON
TULANE (-3.5) BY 2 OVER EAST CAROLINA
CINCINNATI (-27.5) BY 37 OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TULSA (-5.5) BY 11 OVER NAVY
Other than a poor showing at Wyoming, Tulsa has played pretty solid football this season and probably deserves to be favored by more than this against Navy. The worry here is that the Golden Hurricane rank 116th against the run, so this might be one that it’s best to stay away from. Honestly, none of these games really intrigue me, as there’s a lot that can go wrong.
CONFERENCE USA
LAST WEEK: 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS
UAB (-9.5) BY 4 OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE
CONNECTICUT (-5.5) BY 13 OVER FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
UTSA (-6.5) BY 1 OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY
UTEP (+2.5) BY 3 OVER LOUISIANA TECH
I feel better about this UTEP line, as the Miners defend the pass pretty well but aren’t very good against the run. Louisiana Tech is terrible at running the ball and will have to try to throw to win, which should play into the Miners’ hands. I don’t think the computer is giving UTSA enough respect, or maybe it believes in Western Kentucky too much after the destruction of Florida International, but either way, I don’t like this number.
INDEPENDENTS
LAST WEEK: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
LIBERTY (-24.5) BY 32 OVER MASSACHUSETTS
NOTRE DAME (-3.5) BY 13 OVER BYU
Aside from the win over Baylor, BYU really hasn’t looked all that great this season. Notre Dame hasn’t been all that great itself, but the Irish played well last week and gave Ohio State a decent battle in the season opener. I agree with the computer here; this line should be more.
MAC
LAST WEEK: 4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS
WESTERN MICHIGAN (-4.5) BY 5 OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN
OHIO (-10.5) BY 17 OVER AKRON
MIAMI-OHIO (+5.5) BY 4 OVER KENT STATE
BUFFALO (-2.5) BY 7 OVER BOWLING GREEN
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-7.5) BY 9 OVER BALL STATE
TOLEDO (-5.5) BY 2 OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
I’m not sure why so many people are dumping on Northern Illinois. Yes, the Huskies have stumbled to a 1-4 record this season. But two of those losses were to SEC opponents in Kentucky and Vanderbilt and a third was a 3-pointer at Tulsa. Other than the loss to Ball State, there’s not a bad showing in there. The Huskies can hang with Toledo and should be competitive. Miami is catching points at home against Kent State, which doesn’t make a lot of sense. The RedHawks fell by just a point at Dix Stadium last year, and the past seven meetings would have seen you go 7-0 if you’d taken Miami +6. The RedHawks look solid at home here.
MOUNTAIN WEST
LAST WEEK: 4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS
NEVADA (-3.5) BY 14 OVER COLORADO STATE
SAN JOSE STATE (-6.5) BY 19 OVER UNLV
AIR FORCE (-10.5) BY 17 OVER UTAH STATE
WYOMING (-3.5) BY 6 OVER NEW MEXICO
BOISE STATE (-7.5) BY 6 OVER FRESNO STATE
SAN DIEGO STATE (-22.5) BY 22 OVER HAWAII
The casual fan sees UNLV 4-1 and San Jose State 3-1 and thinks it’ll be a tight contest. The computer sees UNLV beating three weak FBS teams and a very weak FCS opponent while San Jose State was pounding Western Michigan, a decent MAC team. Elsewhere, I’d tease Boise State down a couple points; no way am I fading the Broncos on the Blue.
SUN BELT
LAST WEEK: 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS
GEORGIA STATE (-2.5) BY 1 OVER GEORGIA SOUTHERN
TROY (-6.5) BY 18 OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
APPALACHIAN STATE (-19.5) BY 18 OVER TEXAS STATE
JAMES MADISON (-11.5) BY 14 OVER ARKANSAS STATE
COASTAL CAROLINA (-13.5) BY 18 OVER LOUSIANA-MONROE
Beating Marshall and nearly beating App State says that Troy is for real in the Sun Belt, and the Trojans should be able to handle Southern Mississippi fairly easily. The Golden Eagles have four covers to their name, but they’ve also played a fairly soft schedule to this point. In other action, James Madison continues to rip through FBS, and going to Arkansas State shouldn’t faze the Dukes any more than anything else they’ve faced this season.
