SAVANNAH, Ga. — Quite honestly, yesterday’s conference championship games felt like a real letdown. It had nothing to do with my bets; it had to do with getting robbed of great action.
In the AFC, the officials ruined a classic. The last play had two critical decisions go against Cincinnati, either of which changes the outcome. We’ve all seen the shove from Joseph Ossai on Patrick Mahomes out of bounds. That shouldn’t be a penalty. A 260-pound man at full speed is not stopping on a dime, and Mahomes should not be allowed to keep gaining yards while giving himself up.
Plus, Mahomes is only free because Orlando Brown Jr. holds Trey Hendrickson to allow him to scramble. That should be a flag, and if you don’t call that one, you can’t possibly call the flag on Ossai. At best for the Chiefs, they should have either had a five-yard gain or offsetting penalties. They probably should have been pushed out of Harrison Butker’s range entirely. Either way, Butker should have had to kick from 60 yards at best.
But at least Cincinnati had a chance to make the officials’ mistakes irrelevant. San Francisco never even got the chance. The 49ers already had to turn to No. 3 quarterback Brock Purdy, then watched him and Josh Johnson get injured. Against a healthy Philadelphia squad, the hobbled 49ers had no chance. And so we get a Super Bowl where neither side really feels deserving. The Eagles did nothing wrong, but they got to play a terribly weakened foe, and Kansas City didn’t really beat Cincinnati on its own.
Hopefully, Monday provides some much more satisfying encounters. Here are my plays for January 30.
JETS ML, -230
This is where you take the win. The Jets have won five straight over the Blues, who come in losers in four straight. Winnipeg isn’t playing well either, but at least the Jets’ losses are coming against decent teams. St. Louis just lost to Arizona, which would sit last in the Central if not for a gruesome Blackhawks squad. Winnipeg should get a needed victory here.
VIRGINIA ML, -220
I’m probably laying the 5 with the Cavaliers, but if you don’t feel that risky, you should feel good about a UVA win. Syracuse has taken home losses to Pitt and North Carolina, and the Orange don’t look like they’re turning things around. They did beat Virginia Tech at home, but the Hokies were in the midst of a seven-game pratfall. Virginia’s won seven straight and three straight by double digits. The Cavaliers should handle business.
IOWA STATE ML, -115
Is Iowa State just useless outside of Hilton Coliseum, or did the Cyclones catch Missouri on the wrong day? I’m leaning toward the latter. The Cyclones have dropped three straight, but Missouri shot the lights out Saturday. Outside of that, Iowa State’s losses include one bad showing in Iowa City, two points in Lawrence and two points in Stillwater. The last two are more than forgivable, and Texas Tech hasn’t played well in Lubbock or anywhere else this season. This should be manageable for Iowa State on the plains of West Texas.
ALABAMA STATE ML, -140
Shield your children’s eyes, folks; this will be that ugly. Alabama State cannot shoot and neither can Florida A&M. The Hornets rank 363rd out of 363 Division I teams in field goal percentage, and the Rattlers aren’t much better. Plus, Alabama State has zero road wins in 16 tries this season. But the Hornets have two advantages: they don’t turn the ball over as much as Florida A&M, and they mostly make their free throws. As Florida A&M sends opponents to the line often, the Hornets have the edge.
MORGAN STATE ML, +105
Morgan State hasn’t yet lost at home, so there’s value here. There’s also worry, because if the Bears’ 3-point shooting goes south, this bet falls apart quickly. Morgan State has only two ways to hurt you: from the arc or with the steal. Maryland-Eastern Shore has dropped four straight to Morgan State in Baltimore, so backing the Bears makes sense in this matchup.
