Once again, Mondays worked out well for me. It’s probably because all I have to do is pick a winner, but Monday traditionally serves as my strongest day of the week. Tuesday, on the other hand, has proven much trickier. Totals can be challenging to call, although the task does get a bit easier during college basketball season.
We’re hoping to build off last night’s perfect performance and find some more winners. Here are my best plays for December 13.
ARGENTINA-CROATIA U2.25, -140
World Cup semifinals are often tight, nervy affairs. Nothing makes sense in this tournament, but Argentina and Croatia both have the back lines to frustrate the other one. This looks like it’s going to take a moment of magic and might require extra time to decide. Corey, Thomas and myself discussed this last night, and I think Corey’s right: this should finish with two goals or less.
SAINT PETER’S-HARTFORD UNDER 127.5, -110
Take everything you learned about Saint Peter’s in March and flush it. These Peacocks have changed a lot since then, and they’re now a slow-paced, inefficient team. Hartford’s situation has also gotten much worse rather quickly. The Hawks will drop to Division III after this season and lost their coach before the season began. This now resembles a D-III squad playing one final year in D-I, and neither team gets to the free throw line very often. Throw in that both teams play slow, and that should put an under in play.
GREEN BAY TTU 64, -110
Slow teams with bad offenses usually make good under bets. Green Bay usually doesn’t get into the high 60s, and St. Thomas should put itself in firm control of this game. The Phoenix have only hit 65 points on four occasions this season: fast-paced Milwaukee, an IUPUI squad that might be the nation’s worst, a Queens squad that got lazy with a double-digit lead and UMKC on an unusually efficient night. St. Thomas should slow the game enough to keep the Phoenix from getting to 65.
ALABAMA-MEMPHIS UNDER 152, -110
Under Nate Oats, Alabama basketball has meant fun and points. But just because the Tide can run doesn’t mean the Tide can shoot. Alabama wins because it plays good defense and gets so many chances that something will fall, not because it’s a team of great shooters. Memphis can defend the Tide pretty well, and Alabama will do the same on the other end. There will be possessions aplenty, but as long as we avoid overtime, this total looks too high.
DUCKS TTU 1.5, +145
Anaheim comes off getting worked by Ottawa last night, and things won’t get any better against a defensive-minded Toronto side. The Ducks rank dead last in goals and have scored one goal or less in four of their past seven games. Meanwhile, the Leafs have two shutouts in their past three contests. If you want to play a little safer, get the Ducks TTU 2.5 for the juice, but this appears a strong value play.
BEYOND THE TOTALS
I can’t ignore this one: Boston College should not be favored by 12.5 points over anybody right now. The Eagles have played five buy games this season in Chestnut Hill and haven’t covered in any of them. To make matters worse, they’ve actually managed to lose two of them, as Maine and New Hampshire both came south and left with a win. Stonehill (+12.5, -110) should be able to hang around.
