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NCAAW betting market report: Recap, Daily picks and Analysis 11/29

Taking money line dogs is a tough lifestyle. Sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn’t. On Monday, South Dakota State looked like trash to put it lightly. The Jackrabbits jumped out to a 16-8 first-quarter lead then they put up three points in the second-quarter and Washington State was able to take advantage of that and came away with a 61-41 win. But a half-unit play doesn’t hurt us too bad when cash our other three plays.

11/28 recap: 3-1 (+2.5u)

Campbell/Norfolk State u110.5 ✅
Ole Miss -33.5 ✅
Wright State/Eastern Illinois o139.5 ✅
SDSU +170 (0.5u) ❌

YTD Record: 59-30 (+31.89u)

I don’t love today’s board. That’s just me being honest. We’ve done a really good job of picking our spots this season but you’ll notice we are backing some large favorites today. If you don’t feel confident in laying these large numbers I don’t blame you. Below you’ll find our top bets for today, November 29.

Tuesday Plays

SIU Edwardsville vs. Iowa State (-43.5)

We took a large spread on Monday with Ole Miss -33.5 and it cashed. Iowa State ranks Top 20 in offensive rating, defensive rating and points per game. SIUE on the other hand is near the bottom in almost every category besides possessions per 40 minutes (78.4) where they rank 22nd in the nation. SIUE has played a pretty tough schedule this season with losses against Purdue (6-1), Xavier (6-1) and Eastern Michigan (4-0). But they’ve lost by 40 or more points in three our of their five games this season. This large spread should be no issue for Iowa State to cover.

Alabama A&M vs. Ole Miss (-37.5)

We may have to change the title of today’s report to the “Big Spreads Report.” Sick title change, I know. But Ole Miss takes on another bad team today. An Alabama A&M team that doesn’t score the rock (51.6 ppg) and gives up over 70 points per game. Ole Miss just dropped 93 points on a bad Texas Southern team, so I expect them to cover this large number again today.

Louisiana-Monroe (+34.5) vs. Mississippi State 

We were so close to changing the blog title but I think this is too many points for Mississippi State. Louisiana-Monroe can’t score (53.3 ppg) but they can defend better than the worst of the worst. I see this being a blowout but I think ULM can keep this within the number. Mississippi State averages 75.4 points per game this season and they are a very defensively sound ball club where I think they can hold ULM to 55 points or less. I just don’t see the Bulldogs putting up 85-plus points in a game that’ll feature two fairly slower ball clubs in terms of possessions per 40 minutes.

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