I hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving break. I was able to spend it with the family in northern Minnesota and did catch a few of the great games that were played out over the weekend. We didn’t give out a ton of plays, so I do apologize for that but let’s get back to it on this Monday.
YTD Record: 56-29 (+29.39u)
Campbell/Norfolk State over/under 110.5
We have a defensive battle on our hands this afternoon between two teams that are Top 12 in defense. Both teams give up below 54 points per game and Norfolk State is holding its opponents to 29.6 percent from the floor. Offensively, Campbell ranks near the bottom of the nation in possessions per 40 minutes and I almost lean towards taking the Fighting Camels +7.5 because I expect this to be a low scoring affair. However, everything points towards a defensive battle here. Campbell has yet to give up more than 62 points this season and Norfolk State has yet to give up more than 65.
The Pick: under 110.5 (-110)
Texas Southern/Ole Miss (-33.5)
Listen, this is a large number but we’ve said it from the start: no number is too large in women’s college basketball. This is not on our best bets list but Texas Southern is so bad that we’ll back Ole Miss tonight. Texas Southern can’t shoot (55.5 ppg), they can’t defend (83.3 ppg allowed) and they’ve been outscored 500-333.
The Pick: Ole Miss -33.5 (-110)
Wright State/Eastern Illinois o/u 139.5
A strategy I’ve used this season is taking overs when a good offensive team is playing a bad defensive team and that’s what we have with Wright State and Eastern Illinois. The Panthers are 4-0 and are averaging 76.8 points per game, which ranks Top 50 in the nation. Wright State is allowing a dead last 98.3 points per game this year but they’ve faced a tough schedule with losses against Ohio State, Toledo and Bowling Green. Both teams rank in the Top 102 in the nation in possessions per 40 minutes, so getting this total below 140 points is great in my mind.
The Pick: over 139.5 (-110)
South Dakota State (+4.5) vs. Washington State
Washington State has really played anybody, right? They lost to a 1-5 BYU team on a neutral court and beat San Francisco (4-2), Troy (3-3) and Prairie View (0-3). South Dakota State has wins over Louisville and Mississippi State and had two strong outings against Creighton and UCLA. I’m going to take the Jackrabbits +170 for a half-unit.