I’ll admit that I was rather concerned that Jonathan Quick was going to stand on his head and steal my parlay after 40 minutes of action last night. Vegas seemed off, and Quick was playing like it was 2016 again, leading to a 1-1 stalemate after two periods.
And then…Los Angeles intervened with a dumb penalty to close the second period and set the Golden Knights up with a power play to lead off the third. Technically, the power play expired before Jack Eichel stuck the puck in the net, but Kevin Fiala hadn’t yet gotten back into action, so the power play created the chance. That goal changed the flow of the game and forced Los Angeles to get aggressive, which was exactly what my over needed.
Hopefully, things will flow a little easier today, but three wins was a nice Tuesday effort. Let’s get back after it. Here are my plays for October 12.
BRISTOL CITY-PRESTON NORTH END U2.0, +135
Something went wrong with Bristol City after the most recent international window. As a Bristol Rovers supporter, I’m just fine seeing that, but more importantly, the Robins aren’t scoring. Since returning from the window, Bristol City has one goal in three matches.
Preston finally broke loose on offense last time out in a 3-2 win over Norwich, but that’s an outlier. The Lilywhites have played 13 matches, and that’s the only one where U2.5 hasn’t cashed. I’ll get a little more aggressive here because of Bristol City’s poor form.
BRUINS ML, +130
Washington is nowhere near full strength in this game, as the Capitals are down Nicklas Backstrom and Carl Hagelin for sure and might be without T.J. Oshie as well. That really leaves Alex Ovechkin as the Capitals’ only offensive threat in this game, and that’s no longer enough.
Ovie is still a great player, but he’s now 37 and can’t win a game on his own anymore. I think the total is also too high with the injuries, but Boston is missing multiple defensemen, so I’m going to stay away from that. Instead, I’ll back plus money on the Bruins, who have won six of seven against the Capitals.
BLUE JACKETS TTU 2.5, -125
The Maple Leafs have to be kicking themselves for giving up on Frederik Andersen too early. Turns out that he really likes playing in Raleigh, as he posted a 1.95 GAA in 26 starts at PNC Arena. Goals don’t usually come easy between Columbus and Carolina anyway, and the Hurricanes are very tough to handle on their ice. This shouldn’t be a great night for Columbus’ attack.
PHILLIES ML, +120
This is exactly the danger of a short series: the Phillies now have the Braves right where they want them despite Atlanta winning the NL East by 14 games. Philadelphia stole Game 1 with its bats, and the Phils now get to bring out their big guns in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.
It doesn’t hurt that Wheeler really likes pitching in Atlanta. He’s from nearby Smyrna (home of my cousins Max and Rebecca), and he’s held the Braves to two runs or less in his past three starts at Truist Park. Plus money here feels like a gift.
LOUISIANA +10.5, -110
This feels like too many points for Marshall to give. Not only are the Thundering Herd poor cover bets at home (8-25 ATS over their past 33 home games), but this is a ground and defense-oriented team that is not build to blow anyone out. Louisiana is better than its record has shown and should be able to hang around and keep this game interesting.
PLAYS TO AVOID
Chicago’s rebuild this season is going to be ghastly. The Blackhawks will lose a lot of games. However, there are better times to fade them than facing the Avalanche when Colorado is -415 on the money line. I am not a fan of puck-line betting because too many things can go wrong and you’re almost dependent on an empty-netter in those situations, so this is one to stay away from.