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Tuesday Totals: Best Bets for October 4

Baseball still provided a little unwelcome randomness when the Rays blew a 3-0 lead yesterday, but for the most part, things went the way they should. Casa Pia and the Phillies both provided a solid moneyline win for plus money, allowing me to emerge with three solid victories for the day.

Tuesday is going to be a little tougher with totals plays, but there’s still a fair amount here that I can work with. With Champions League action happening today, it’s time to take a deep dive and see if we can compare unlike things for a reasonable play. Here are my best bets for October 4.


I’m banking on a fast start for Bayern Munich here because I know what the Bundesliga calendar holds for the Bavarians: away to Borussia Dortmund on Saturday. That’s the toughest trip of the season for Bayern, and it’s one where they’ll need to be at their best.

As such, they won’t want to mess around with Czech champion Viktoria Plzen any longer than necessary. Viktoria already got worked 5-1 at Barcelona and trailed 3-0 at half, so two Bayern goals in the first 45 minutes are very reasonable. Look for the Bavarians to try to put home two or three early and get their best players some extra rest before going to Dortmund.


Bayer Leverkusen have been just horrid on defense this season, shipping two goals or more to Augsburg, Hoffenheim, Freiburg, Hertha and Bayern in Bundesliga action. Interestingly, Leverkusen have looked much better in Champions League play, which suggests that they might be putting all of their eggs in that basket. But after getting drilled 4-0 by Bayern, I think the defense might be a little lax on the trip to Portugal. Porto should find the net once or twice, and Leverkusen holds good value to do some scoring as well.


These teams know how to score. Ajax has 23 goals in eight matches in the Dutch Eredivisie, while Napoli is the strongest attacking side that Serie A has. There’s plenty of reason that these two offensive-minded sides should find the net in a match where both sides can spread each other out and create opportunities.

PHILLIES TTU 2.5, -115

Whoever dreamed up MLB’s 12-team playoff format must have forgotten that there’s no guarantee a division champion will be better than the best wild card. Because of that, the Phillies have absolutely no motivation to try to win today or Wednesday. First, they have to set up their pitching to play Friday. Second, there is no benefit whatsoever to finishing fifth. Sixth place is still in the playoffs, and instead of facing the Mets and then having to fly cross-country to play the Dodgers if they win, the sixth-place team gets the Cardinals and would play the Braves if they win.

The Cardinals aren’t pushovers, but in a short series, I’d rather play St. Louis than New York. The Braves are the defending champions, but I’d still rather play Atlanta than Los Angeles in any series. And traveling from Texas to Missouri to Georgia is a lot easier than going Texas to New York to California. So why would the Phillies want to try tonight? Plus, they’re facing Justin Verlander, so even if they wanted to win, they’d be in trouble.

PADRES TTU 3.5, -105

Absolutely, I’m going to try the same strategy with the Padres, and for the same exact reason. San Diego also has no motivation to win and might have even more motivation to lose and hope the Phillies stumble into the No. 5 spot than Philadelphia has to lose. The Phillies managed a season split with the Dodgers, while Los Angeles beat the tar out of San Diego all year, going 14-5 against the Padres.

The best play on the board here is Giants ML at +130, but we’re going totals, so I’m looking at Carlos Rodon. In three starts against the Padres, he’s held them to two runs or less twice and beat them 3-1 at Petco Park in July, going the distance in the win.

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