CFB

Week 4 Computer Plays, Non-Power Conferences

There’s often value to be had in the non-Power 5 games, and this week shouldn’t be any different. Let’s take a dive into the Group of 5 games for Week 4.

AMERICAN

CINCINNATI (-16.5) BY 18 OVER INDIANA

SMU (+2.5) BY 6 OVER TCU

TEMPLE (-9.5) BY 12 OVER MASSACHUSETTS

MEMPHIS (-12.5) BY 21 OVER NORTH TEXAS

EAST CAROLINA (-16.5) BY 29 OVER NAVY

CENTRAL FLORIDA (-20.5) BY 24 OVER GEORGIA TECH

HOUSTON (-17.5) BY 19 OVER RICE

TULANE (-12.5) BY 24 OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

SMU is intriguing to me. The Mustangs had Maryland dead to rights on the road and gave the game away, which could spell trouble for TCU. The Frogs have to travel across the Metroplex to face a team that has looked to be on the explosive side, so as long as the Mustangs don’t self-destruct again, they should get the cover. East Carolina now has three covers to its name, and Navy has really struggled to this point in the season. This spread seems low.

CONFERENCE USA

BOISE STATE (-15.5) BY 22 OVER UTEP

WESTERN KENTUCKY (-31.5) BY 42 OVER FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

Neither team has a cover on the season, but I like Boise to break that streak in this situation. UTEP has really struggled in the first few games this season and has not built on its momentum in any way, while Boise has at least come close to a couple of covers. The Broncos should be fine here, and Western Kentucky should make up for coming short against Indiana by whacking FIU.

INDEPENDENTS

LIBERTY (-26.5) BY 40 OVER AKRON

NEW MEXICO STATE (-4.5) BY 2 OVER HAWAII

BYU (-22.5) BY 15 OVER WYOMING

Liberty should be able to whack Akron as long as it’s not still thinking about coming just short against Wake Forest. As for the other two, Wyoming’s inconsistency really worries me. I’m not sure that I should risk anything involving Wyoming at the moment, so I’m probably only going to throw the Cowboys in a parlay if I play them at all.

MAC

EASTERN MICHIGAN (-6.5) BY 13 OVER BUFFALO

This is the only game in a MAC stadium this week. Buffalo has won three of four games in this series, but Eastern Michigan is coming off a win against Arizona State and the Bulls no longer have Lance Leipold on the sidelines. The Eagles should be just fine here at the Factory.

MOUNTAIN WEST

SAN DIEGO STATE (+2.5) BY 1 OVER TOLEDO

SAN JOSE STATE (-6.5) BY 5 OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN

AIR FORCE (-23.5) BY 15 OVER NEVADA

UNLV (-2.5) BY 17 OVER UTAH STATE

UNLV clearly looks like the play here. The Rebels have covered in three games this season, while Utah State has yet to land a cover in any of its three contests. Yet you’re only giving 2.5 in a matchup where UNLV comes in with five covers in its past six September games. San Diego State could also be a solid play, as the public has soured on the Aztecs after the Utah disaster.

SUN BELT

COASTAL CAROLINA (-2.5) BY 13 OVER GEORGIA STATE

OLD DOMINION (-5.5) BY 9 OVER ARKANSAS STATE

APPALACHIAN STATE (-7.5) BY 4 OVER JAMES MADISON

GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-9.5) BY 11 OVER BALL STATE

SOUTH ALABAMA (-13.5) BY 21 OVER LOUISIANA TECH

MARSHALL (-3.5) BY 3 OVER TROY

LOUISIANA (-9.5) BY 17 OVER LOUISIANA-MONROE

With Louisiana coming in having covered nine of their past 11 against ULM, this looks like a solid play to make. I’m still not sure what to make of James Madison, so that might be one I stay away from. Coastal Carolina looks like a good option as well, as the Chanticleers have never lost at Georgia State and should be the stronger squad after losing at home last season to the Panthers.

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