There’s often value to be had in the non-Power 5 games, and this week shouldn’t be any different. Let’s take a dive into the Group of 5 games for Week 4.
CINCINNATI (-16.5) BY 18 OVER INDIANA
SMU (+2.5) BY 6 OVER TCU
TEMPLE (-9.5) BY 12 OVER MASSACHUSETTS
MEMPHIS (-12.5) BY 21 OVER NORTH TEXAS
EAST CAROLINA (-16.5) BY 29 OVER NAVY
CENTRAL FLORIDA (-20.5) BY 24 OVER GEORGIA TECH
HOUSTON (-17.5) BY 19 OVER RICE
TULANE (-12.5) BY 24 OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SMU is intriguing to me. The Mustangs had Maryland dead to rights on the road and gave the game away, which could spell trouble for TCU. The Frogs have to travel across the Metroplex to face a team that has looked to be on the explosive side, so as long as the Mustangs don’t self-destruct again, they should get the cover. East Carolina now has three covers to its name, and Navy has really struggled to this point in the season. This spread seems low.
BOISE STATE (-15.5) BY 22 OVER UTEP
WESTERN KENTUCKY (-31.5) BY 42 OVER FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Neither team has a cover on the season, but I like Boise to break that streak in this situation. UTEP has really struggled in the first few games this season and has not built on its momentum in any way, while Boise has at least come close to a couple of covers. The Broncos should be fine here, and Western Kentucky should make up for coming short against Indiana by whacking FIU.
LIBERTY (-26.5) BY 40 OVER AKRON
NEW MEXICO STATE (-4.5) BY 2 OVER HAWAII
BYU (-22.5) BY 15 OVER WYOMING
Liberty should be able to whack Akron as long as it’s not still thinking about coming just short against Wake Forest. As for the other two, Wyoming’s inconsistency really worries me. I’m not sure that I should risk anything involving Wyoming at the moment, so I’m probably only going to throw the Cowboys in a parlay if I play them at all.
EASTERN MICHIGAN (-6.5) BY 13 OVER BUFFALO
This is the only game in a MAC stadium this week. Buffalo has won three of four games in this series, but Eastern Michigan is coming off a win against Arizona State and the Bulls no longer have Lance Leipold on the sidelines. The Eagles should be just fine here at the Factory.
SAN DIEGO STATE (+2.5) BY 1 OVER TOLEDO
SAN JOSE STATE (-6.5) BY 5 OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN
AIR FORCE (-23.5) BY 15 OVER NEVADA
UNLV (-2.5) BY 17 OVER UTAH STATE
UNLV clearly looks like the play here. The Rebels have covered in three games this season, while Utah State has yet to land a cover in any of its three contests. Yet you’re only giving 2.5 in a matchup where UNLV comes in with five covers in its past six September games. San Diego State could also be a solid play, as the public has soured on the Aztecs after the Utah disaster.
COASTAL CAROLINA (-2.5) BY 13 OVER GEORGIA STATE
OLD DOMINION (-5.5) BY 9 OVER ARKANSAS STATE
APPALACHIAN STATE (-7.5) BY 4 OVER JAMES MADISON
GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-9.5) BY 11 OVER BALL STATE
SOUTH ALABAMA (-13.5) BY 21 OVER LOUISIANA TECH
MARSHALL (-3.5) BY 3 OVER TROY
LOUISIANA (-9.5) BY 17 OVER LOUISIANA-MONROE
With Louisiana coming in having covered nine of their past 11 against ULM, this looks like a solid play to make. I’m still not sure what to make of James Madison, so that might be one I stay away from. Coastal Carolina looks like a good option as well, as the Chanticleers have never lost at Georgia State and should be the stronger squad after losing at home last season to the Panthers.