CFB

Three-Play Thursday: Best Bets for September 22

We’ve got Thursday college games happening again as well as an international match window, so now’s the perfect time to bring back the parlay plays. It’s been a while since I’ve been able to do this, but I think there’s enough here to make a few solid plays that give us a chance at value.

Hopefully, you caught my League C parlay on the podcast last night, as Kazakhstan and Belarus are playing that out as I type (Belarus literally just scored to get my draw back on the table as I’m writing) and I’ve got a +475 parlay in action. Here are the rest of my plays, leaving that first play aside.

HIGHER LEAGUE SOCCER PARLAY: BELGIUM ML, DENMARK DOUBLE CHANCE, AUSTRIA +1.5, +270

Wales isn’t concerned with the result against Belgium. The Dragons have their minds firmly on the United States and the World Cup in November, and they’re looking to use these two matches to get their team ready for Group B. That should allow Belgium to leave with three points, as the result still matters to the Red Devils because winning Nations League is still possible.

Croatia has been very poor at home, taking one point in two home matches, and I think Denmark owes the Red and Whites something after their one slip in Copenhagen. Finally, France does not look like a League A side right now. Les Bleus look like the Champions’ Curse is going to get them at the World Cup, as they have two defeats and two draws in Nations League. An Austrian draw would mean safety for Austria as long as France do not defeat Denmark, so look for them to play for a point. That should keep the margin to no worse than one.

LOWER LEAGUE SOCCER PARLAY: ANDORRA ML, FAROE ISLANDS DOUBLE CHANCE, SLOVAKIA AND U2.5, +840

If that first play wasn’t aggressive enough for you, how about this one? Andorra is the stronger side compared to Liechtenstein, and after scoring in Moldova, I think Andorra can take all three points coming out of Vaduz, where the hosts have dropped a pair of 2-0 results. (If you really want to get bold, make it Andorra to nil to get this to +1200).

Corey, Thomas and I had a deep dive into whether to fade the Faroe Islands on the podcast, but I’d rather fade Lithuania. The Faroes have actually been decent on their travels as of late, leaving Denmark and Israel with goals and taking points off Gibraltar, Liechtenstein and Luxembourg. Lithuania is poor no matter where it plays, so I like the Faroes to get at least a draw. Finally, this is exactly the kind of match Slovakia wins 1-0 or 2-0. Azerbaijan has been blanked three times, and Slovakia needs a win to have any hope of promotion. The attack isn’t great, but it’s good enough to slip one past the visitors.

AMERICAN FOOTBALL PARLAY: COASTAL CAROLINA ML, VIRGINIA TECH ML, STEELERS +5.5, +575

I don’t have to take Virginia Tech moneyline, as the Hokies are Lane Stadium underdogs while my computer likes the Hokies giving a touchdown. But I’m doing it anyway to get more value out of this play while taking a couple extra points on the Steelers. In a division game, when you’re not sure, you always want to go with the underdog and the points. The Steelers have played two tight games against decent teams, while the Browns have played two tight games against weaker foes. Pittsburgh’s defense should keep the Steelers in the game, so the 5.5 number gives me a cushion.

Virginia Tech’s defense looks solid as well, and even though Kansas is proving better than anyone expected, I’m still not sold on West Virginia. Going to Blacksburg on a Thursday night is not a scenario where I want a road favorite, especially in an old-school rivalry. Finally, here’s a weird stat for you: the home team has never won in the Coastal Carolina-Georgia State matchup. I’ll back that trend to continue with Coastal on the moneyline.

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