I haven’t always been a fan of watching Minnesota play on Monday night – especially when Kirk Cousins runs the ship. Cousins is 2-9 in Monday night games but has won back-to-back contests against Chicago in 2020 and 2021.
But when you’re traveling back home from Lincoln, Neb., on a Sunday afternoon, it’s kind of nice to not have to watch the Vikings from the interstate with Bugles dust on your fingers.
There are two games on this evening starting with Tennessee and Buffalo at 6:30 p.m. (CT) followed with the battle between two 1-0 teams in Minnesota and Philadelphia at 7:30 p.m. (CT). Having these games overlap should cost someone their job but at the end of the day, two football games on a week day is a gift.
My record this NFL season is anything but sexy. I’m 5-6 (-1.25 units), however, we are rolling into Monday with some confidence after the 3-1 (+1.95u) finish to Sunday. We also submitted a five-team teaser and need Buffalo -4 and Minnesota +8 to cash that ticket.
I have two official plays (so far) for tonight’s Vikings vs. Eagles contest along with a handful of leans for both games. There’s a good chance most of my leans will get added to my official card for tonight but it’s early on a Monday morning and I need to get my thoughts on to paper before I send out the official “MNF Plays” tweet.
Official Plays (so far)
Eagles TT u26.5 (-110)
I know @PumbaCakes talked about on last week’s episode of the Mount Lockmore podcast that people are overreacting to the Vikings defensive performance. Maybe so. But slowing down Aaron Rodgers regardless of his subpar wide receivers is a win. Yes, the Christian Watson dropped touchdown could’ve changed the flow of the game but the fact is Ed Donatell and his defense held Rodgers to 195 passing yards, zero touchdowns and a QBR of 18.3. They were able to hold all Green Bay running backs to 50 rushing yards or fewer.
Jalen Hurts is an all-time Madden player. He looked pretty dangerous against Detroit despite not throwing a touchdown pass. But tonight he’s not playing against a Lions defense that let Carson Wentz throw for 337 yards and three touchdowns.
I lean the under in this game already, so I think Philadelphia’s team total under is a strong play in my book.
Dalvin Cook o16.5 rushing attempts (-130)
D’Andre Swift sliced and diced up Philadelphia’s defense in Week 1 as he finished with 144 yards on 15 carries. He also had one touchdown but it was Jamaal Williams that finished with a team-high two rushing touchdowns on just 11 carries for 28 yards.
Dalvin Cook had a pretty strong outing against Green Back in Week 1 as he finished with 20 carries for 90 yards on the ground but he didn’t get into the end zone. Cook has only played against the Eagles once in his career and that came in 2019 when he carried the football 16 times for 41 rushing yards and one score.
The Eagles secondary will have the tall task of slowing down Justin Jefferson and with that strong secondary I expect them to have a solid game back there. I think if Minnesota’s passing game gets off to a slow start, Cook should get plenty of carries on the road tonight in Philadelphia.
Keep in mind that Philadelphia allowed Detroit to pick up 6.5 yards per carry last week, so if Cook gets going downhill, look for the Vikings to keep feeding him the football.
My Monday Night Leans
MIN/PHI u49 (-110)
Jefferson had a day against Green Bay but tonight he’ll have a tough matchup against Philadelphia’s secondary with talented players in James Bradberry and Darius Slay. Maybe this makes sense to look at an Adam Theilen receiving prop but we have to remember that the Eagles scored easily against the Lions. This Vikings defense is better than Detroit’s and people need to remember that. Hurts being a dual-threat quarterback is a much different matchup than playing against Rodgers but I think Minnesota’s defense can handle the challenge with the new staff in place.
Looking at the numbers, 69 percent of the bets and 87 percent of the money is on the over. It makes sense why. Minnesota has the weapons to score with the best of them and the Eagles put up 38 points in Week 1. But to me, I’m going to look at the under being an official play.
Titans TT o17.5 (-110)
I asked Pumba about his thoughts on Tennessee’s team total against Buffalo and he was not drinking my tea. He said if anything take the Titans team total under but I disagree with him on this one. Buffalo’s defense is nasty and they are coming off a huge performance where they picked off Matthew Stafford three times on Sept. 8.
But Tennessee plays Buffalo tough and its offense has scored 76 points in its last two games against the Bills. The Titans on paper don’t have the workhorses to hang with Buffalo but there were some positive signs in their 21-20 season-opening loss to New York. Ryan Tannehill finished 20-of-33 for 266 yards and two touchdowns, while nearly half of his completions went to different wide receivers.
I know Buffalo has one of the top defenses in the league but a healthy Tannehill has to be better than a banged up, hung over, Super Bowl winning quarterback in Stafford. This bet looks better if the number was at 17 but I’ll go against Pumba and lean over on the Titans total points.
I still think there’s a good chance that Buffalo covers -10 but I also think that Tennessee has the ability to score at least 18 points tonight.
