If there’s one word to describe the MAC West Division, it’s parity. All six teams in the division finished .500 or better last season in league play, in large part because they kept beating each other up. Every team in the division got at least two wins in the division, and every team ended up playing in a bowl game.
This division has also been the home of the MAC champion in eight of the past 11 years, so it’s often the smart play to pick one of the MAC West teams and ride them to Detroit. As long as you haven’t backed Eastern Michigan in that stretch (the Eagles have never made it to Detroit since the league championship began), you’ve had a reasonable chance to pick the league champion when taking one of these squads.
Here’s our look at the MAC’s West Division.
BALL STATE (6-6, 4-4 MAC, 4-8 ATS, 3-9 O/U, COMPUTER RATING 19.64)
OVER/UNDER: 5.5 WINS
The Cardinals went from MAC champions in 2020 to MAC West basement in 2021, but they were still fairly competitive in sinking to the bottom of the division. Ball State finished two wins short of making it back to the MAC title game and lost on the final play to league champion Northern Illinois. However, there have been quite a few changes in Muncie since last year, as quarterback Drew Plitt is out of eligibility and the defense has lost a fair amount of experience.
That’s a problem, because Ball State’s defense wasn’t all that great to begin with last year. Giving up 28.4 points per game isn’t terrible in a wide-open league like the MAC, but the Cardinals lost their two best pass defenders in Jaylin Thomas and Bryce Cosby from last year. They also lost first-team all-MAC punter Nathan Snyder, which limits the Cardinals’ ability to flip the field. That extra 10 to 15 yards can make a world of difference, especially with Ball State also losing its kick returner in Justin Hall.
There is some talent here, as Carson Steele should be able to cut through opposing run defenses and keep the Ball State offense on the field. But if new quarterback John Paddock can’t establish a connection with leading receiver Yo’Heinz Tyler in a hurry, the Cardinals won’t have the offense they need to compete in the MAC. The timing of the schedule does them no favors: their first three MAC games are Western Michigan, Northern Illinois and Central Michigan, leaving out only Toledo from the West Division heavyweights. There’s a real chance Ball State could be 0-3 in the league and out of the running by mid-October, and they’ve got to go to both Kent State and Miami. Even with a weak non-league slate that includes Murray State and Connecticut at home, I think the bowl streak ends at two for Ball State.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (8-4, 6-2 MAC, 7-5 ATS, 5-7 O/U, COMPUTER RATING 25.13)
OVER/UNDER: 7.5 WINS
I had a front-row seat to watch Central Michigan give away its shot at the MAC West title last season, as I happened to be in Mount Pleasant for the Chippewas’ 39-38 loss to Northern Illinois. Central Michigan won six of its final seven league games last season and would have gone 7-for-7 had the final snap not slid under holder Luke Elzinga’s hands against Northern Illinois, denying the Chippewas a game-winning field goal attempt and ultimately handing the division to the Huskies.
This year, the Chippewas should be in the mix again. Central Michigan quarterback Daniel Richardson is just a sophomore thanks to the free COVID year and a redshirt, and he’s an excellent decision-maker who can move his team quickly. The running backs are even better, as Lew Nichols led FBS last year with 1,848 yards and Kobe Lewis returns from injury after missing last season.
There are three issues that might keep CMU from returning to the MAC championship this season. First, leading receiver Kalil Pimpleton has graduated, as has leading scorer JaCorey Sullivan. Dallas Dixon returns, but Pimpleton will be very difficult to replace. Second, the defense is very inexperienced. Central Michigan should be strong up front, but with three new linebackers and only four returning starters, the Chippewas’ second-level defense could struggle. Third, CMU must go to both Toledo and Northern Illinois this season. They get a much softer slate out of the East with Bowling Green and Akron replacing Miami and Kent State, but having to face both the Rockets and Huskies away means it’s going to take a lot for CMU to claim the crown. Still, Richardson and Nichols are a tough combination to beat, and eight wins is a very reasonable play.
EASTERN MICHIGAN (7-5, 4-4 MAC, 5-7 ATS, 5-7 O/U, COMPUTER RATING 18.16)
OVER/UNDER: 6.5 WINS
You can’t win in the MAC West if you can’t stop the run, given what Central Michigan and Northern Illinois can do on the ground. Eastern Michigan learned that the hard way in 2021, as the Eagles couldn’t handle teams with solid ground attacks. Despite having all 11 starters back, the line play was the Eagles’ biggest weakness last season, as they surrendered 5.1 yards per carry and got sliced to pieces despite boasting the third-lowest opposing pass completion percentage in the MAC.
And that was what determined whether EMU had success last season or not. Against pass-heavy Miami, Eastern gave up just 12 points and pulled out a stunning win. Against Northern Illinois and Central Michigan, the Huskies and the Chippewas both topped 50 running plays and kept the Eagles’ offense on the sidelines when it mattered most.
The other side of the line wasn’t much better. For the most part, Eastern’s line was a sieve last year, as the Eagles couldn’t generate a push against anyone but Western Michigan. The ground game was at its worst against Central Michigan, when Eastern managed an anemic five yards on 27 carries (that’s not a misprint).
The Eagles bring back four offensive line starters from last year, and the extra experience could make a real difference. So could the return of wideouts Hassan Beydoun and Dylan Drummond, who combined for 1,719 yards and 10 scores last year. If quarterback Taylor Powell can connect with his new targets and the EMU line keeps him upright, the Eagles’ non-conference slate is soft enough to make seven wins possible.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (9-4, 6-2 MAC, 8-4-1 ATS, 7-6 O/U, COMPUTER RATING 17.47)
OVER/UNDER: 7 WINS
Last year’s MAC champs were called the Heart Attack Huskies for a reason: almost every game during the regular season was a close one. Out of nine MAC games last year (counting the conference championship), seven were decided by eight points or less, and the Huskies won all but one of them. On four occasions, NIU either managed the winning score in the game’s final 30 seconds or survived an attempt at the winning score in that time frame. The only times Thomas Hammock’s team didn’t make things close were a loss to Western Michigan that they didn’t need to win and the MAC title game against Kent State, where they learned their lessons from the first meeting and stymied the Flashes.
If the Huskies can stay healthy, things shouldn’t be quite as nerve-wracking this time around. NIU arrived a year early last season, and with Rocky Lombardi and Trayvon Rudolph establishing a real connection, the passing attack should be in fine shape. The same holds with the ground game, where Harrison Waylee returns after missing the entire MAC slate with injury.
This year’s MAC slate won’t be easy, as three of their first four league games are on the road and East favorite Miami enters the schedule. But the two biggest games out of the West, Toledo and Central Michigan, are both in DeKalb, which gives NIU an excellent shot to become the first repeat champion since they racked up five division titles in a row from 2011 to 2015. With Eastern Illinois, Vanderbilt and Tulsa on the schedule, seven wins is very much within reach. Last year’s team was a bit lucky; this year’s is simply good.
TOLEDO (7-5, 5-3 MAC, 8-4 ATS, 6-6 O/U, COMPUTER RATING 25.12)
OVER/UNDER: 7.5 WINS
Two field goals were the difference between Toledo and the MAC title game last season, as the Rockets finished third behind Northern Illinois and Central Michigan after the Huskies beat Toledo with a kick in the final 30 seconds and the Chippewas converted their field goal in overtime to leave the Rockets three points short. In fact, Toledo had four losses by three points or less last season, with one coming against Notre Dame.
Clean those up, and the Rockets should find their way to Detroit this time around. They’ve got their quarterback returning in Dequan Finn, who threw just two interceptions against 18 touchdowns last season and scored nine touchdowns on the ground. The running game is a question mark with Bryant Koback gone, but Peny Boone came via the transfer portal from Maryland and the Rockets return 60% of their offensive line from a season ago. The defense should also be better, as the entire defensive line returns and the one new starter in their front seven is linebacker Dallas Gant, a transfer from Ohio State.
Speaking of Ohio State, that’s the one body bag game the Rockets put on the slate in the non-conference, as the other three are all winnable. Toledo’s fate will be decided in October, when the Rockets welcome in Central Michigan and Kent State with the trip to Northern Illinois in between. Take two of those three (especially if the one is Kent State) and the Rockets will be in great shape to claim the West Division for the first time since 2017.
WESTERN MICHIGAN (7-5, 4-4 MAC, 5-6-1 ATS, 6-6 O/U, COMPUTER RATING 23.14)
OVER/UNDER: 6.5 WINS
Western Michigan took down Pittsburgh last season and seemed to be on its way to bigger and better things last year, but the defense just could not figure out how to stop MAC West opponents. The Broncos’ philosophy was basically to outscore everyone, which explains how they managed to best both the Panthers (44-41) and Kent State (64-31) but went 1-4 in the MAC West (losing to everyone except Northern Illinois’ backups).
The defense should be better this year, but the passing offense is basically starting from scratch this year with only four starters back. The Broncos are going to have to ride their running game to success this year, as they’ve got two strong backs in Sean Tyler and La’Darius Jefferson to take the pressure off new quarterback Jack Salopek.
But without Kaleb Elevy and Skyy Moore in Kalamazoo, it’s difficult to see the Broncos matching what they did a year ago. Western Michigan could very easily lose three non-conference games, as they have to travel to San Jose State and somehow managed to play both of last year’s Peach Bowl participants (Pitt and Michigan State) this season. It doesn’t get easier from there, as Akron’s gone from the schedule and the Broncos have to go to Miami-Ohio this season. The one help is that both Toledo and Northern Illinois will visit, but realistically, Western Michigan could be underdogs in its final five games of the season. I don’t see seven wins coming here.
