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Tuesday Totals: Best Bets for July 12

Turned out that I had a lot more room to be aggressive with England, as the Three Lionesses sliced Norway to pieces with an 8-0 victory that puts the Grasshoppers on the back foot going into the final group stage match with Austria. Luckily for Norway, their goal difference won’t mean much, as they face Austria in the final match knowing that a win makes up for their calamitous performance. However, the Norwegians can no longer play for a draw, not exactly where you want to be against a defensive side like Austria.

But that comes Friday, and we’ll address it then. For the time being, Monday’s plays resulted in a 3-1 day, with two of the wins being plus-money plays and the loss only coming because Northern Ireland couldn’t find a marker. The CONCACAF plays were a great example of why it’s important to know the stakes: the United States didn’t need to hammer already-eliminated Mexico; it’s far more focused on winning the tournament. They were always likely to hold back in the last group stage match, as was Canada. There’s a high chance England will do the same on Friday against Northern Ireland.

Before we get there, though, we’ve got a few more days to figure out. Here are my best plays for July 12.

DENMARK AND O2.5, +120

The Danes are not a great defensive side, as they’ve conceded in four straight matches and last kept a clean sheet against Azerbaijan. Finland struck first against Spain before reality set in, but the Finns aren’t going to be afraid of anyone after scoring on Sweden in a 2-1 away loss during World Cup qualifying. Denmark is the better side and should prevail here, but expect Finland to go down fighting. If you want to play BTTS and a Denmark win, that offers excellent value at +220.

GERMANY-SPAIN U2.5, -120

Both defenses have some holes, but Spain is hampered on the attack after injuries to Jenni Hermoso and Alexia Putellas. These teams played out a 1-1 draw earlier this year, and that was with Putellas on the pitch and scoring Spain’s only marker. Germany put four past Denmark, but Spain is a much stronger side and both teams will be trying their best not to lose, given that neither side wants to face a quarterfinal against England.

AUSTIN FC TTO 1.5, -125

The Oaks have hosted Houston twice, and they’ve yet to fail to score at least twice when hosting their rivals from southeastern Texas. Austin has been a high scoring team this season anyway, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them net a pair against anyone at home. The Verde have scored two or more in three of their past four home matches, and I like that trend to continue here.

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