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Five for Friday: Best Bets for June 3

Thursday proved to be a solid day for me, as the UEFA Nations League minnows came through nicely for me in a +315 parlay play. When national teams get together, there’s usually a play or two you can make successfully if you know the teams well enough, as there’s only a limited number of matches and thus not a lot of information for the sportsbooks to use against you.

That said, this is only a viable strategy if you really know these teams and the data surrounding them. CONCACAF also has its Nations League going on, but I’m not willing to take a risk on Sint Maarten against the U.S. Virgin Islands based on little more than the world rankings. By contrast, European minnows all play regular matches, so there’s a good amount you can get from doing your research.

Let’s put that into practice again: here are my plays for June 3.

MOLDOVA AND U2.5, +215

It’s always a risk when you bet on the likes of Moldova, as the Selectionata have lost 11 of their past 13 matches. However, all of those were against better opposition than Liechtenstein, which have lost 13 of its past 14 matches and have failed to score in nine of their past 10 home matches. Moldova didn’t embarrass itself in World Cup qualifying against anyone but Denmark, as it took home goals from three of four away matches and held six of its eight non-Denmark opponents to two goals or less. This won’t be pretty, but I think Moldova come away the winners in a low-scoring match.

BELARUS ZERO GOALS, -110

I touched on this on the In the Weeds podcast today, but Belarus is playing Slovakia behind closed doors in Serbia as punishment for supporting the Russian invasion. As such, I don’t see Belarus breaking down Slovakia in this match. The Falcons are a pain to play against when everything is clicking, and I think the White Wings will be out of their comfort zone in this situation. Plus, a point is not out of the realm of possibility for Belarus if Slovakia can’t adjust to life after Marek Hamsik, and I think the White Wings would be delighted if this ended 0-0.

CROATIA ML, -103

Austria are in with the big boys in League A now, and I don’t think the Burschen are ready for this challenge. Austria has lost three of its past four true road matches, with the lone exception coming against the Faroe Islands. Needless to say, Croatia is a huge step up from the Faroes and should be able to handle the Austrians. Austria has lost all five meetings in its history with Croatia, and I don’t think that changes here.

LATVIA WIN TO NIL, +100

Backing Estonia against a weak San Marino side worked out nicely, and I will repeat my bet here with Latvia, which is facing an Andorra side that rarely scores away from home and has never put home a goal in five meetings with Latvia. As long as the Eleven Wolves actually hit the target once, they should emerge with a cash here.

LIGHTNING ML, -125

Tampa Bay simply does not lose back-to-back playoff games. The Lightning have won 17 straight playoff games when coming off a loss, a streak that dates back to when Columbus swept them out of the playoffs in 2019. Since then, Tampa Bay has been at its best when it needs a strong effort, and the Lightning need it here. I think they even up the series in this one.

BEYOND THE FIVE

I touched on one other play on In the Weeds, so in case you missed that, I also like Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan BTTS at +115, as both teams have been rather leaky in defense over the past two years. I’m honestly not sure how Pittsburgh Maulers coach Kirby Wilson still has a job after the bizarre decisions he’s made this year, but I think New Jersey (-9) runs over the Maulers and covers this one.

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