Yesterday proved to be another strong day for me, as I went 4-1 and cashed another 3.85 units, but I’m going to talk about the one pick that I missed badly on, New Mexico United and Phoenix Rising going under 2.5. This wasn’t anywhere close, as New Mexico blasted Phoenix 7-0 and probably could have hit a few more.
Total whiff, right? Actually, my analysis of the game wasn’t too far off, as I said in the preview that, “New Mexico is likely to dictate the tempo in this matchup.” and “Throw in the elevation of 5,300 feet in Albuquerque, and Phoenix is likely to be gasping in this one.” And both of those proved to be true. So where did I go wrong?
Turns out that Phoenix was basically sending a high school team to Albuquerque, and it basically had no shot to keep the game close. New Mexico to win to nil would have been free money, but a bit too much information on the Black and Yellow’s attack proved dangerous. Oh well; it should have worked if Phoenix had its full team on the pitch, but with the patchwork lineup Rising sent out, I had no chance. All you can do is write it off and move on to the next one. Here are my best bets for May 25.
ORIOLES ML, +140
Look out, folks: the Orioles can pitch. Baltimore is a long way from being a decent team, but the Orioles have found one thing they do well: they get outs with their bullpen. Only Detroit and Houston have a lower bullpen ERA than Baltimore’s 3.13, so as long as the O’s get out of the fifth inning with the game still in decent shape, they have a chance. The Yankees went too deep into the bullpen in the first two games of the series, and they’re going to be far more worried about having their pitchers ready for the Rays than they will be about beating the Orioles. There’s value on Baltimore tonight.
RED SOX-WHITE SOX O7.5, -110
Boston is straight up whacking the ball right now, and I don’t think the White Sox are going to be able to keep the Boston bats in check after Chicago went deep into the bullpen last night. Unlike Baltimore, the Pale Hose don’t have a good bullpen, as Chicago ranks 13th in the AL (ahead of only Kansas City and Seattle) in bullpen ERA. I think Boston keeps the offense rolling and the pairs of Sox cash this total.
LOUISVILLE CITY-NASHVILLE SC BTTS, -135
This match is everything to LouCity, so much so that the Boys in Purple threw away a match with expansion Monterrey Bay for their first home loss of the year. They should be much more inspired to give a strong performance tonight at home with an MLS team coming in, and Nashville’s leaky defense has conceded in nine of its past 10 matches, which says both teams finding the net has a great chance of happening.
NEW YORK CITY FC TTO 1.5, -150
New York City has been scoring goals on a pretty consistent basis, putting home at least two goals in six of its past eight matches. New England has conceded at least twice in four of its past five matches, which suggests that the Sky Blues are likely to find the net twice in this one.
AVALANCHE -1.5, +100
I’m not going to be quite as aggressive as VFC in this one, but I think there’s a good chance we both emerge winners on this one. St. Louis just doesn’t have the goaltending to stop Colorado without Jordan Binnington between the pipes, and having to head back to Denver seems like a major problem for the Notes. I don’t expect St. Louis to trouble the Avalanche too much here.