I have not gotten off to as hot of a gambling start as I would like following my re-branding from @vonfluechoke to @KotaCapperVFC. In fact, it has been very poor, totaling -5.65u over the past 7 days. That all changes today! Introducing: “VFC’s Best Bets”, where I will write a short blurb about my favorite bet(s) for each day and a value pick. I will keep track of my record and +/- units on these and I am expecting so much green. That all being said, let’s get into today’s plays.
Cubs @ Reds o5 (F5) (-115) 1u to win .87u
These two teams are both known for scoring and giving up runs, a great recipe for the over. You pair that with these starting pitchers and you have a perfect recipe for the over. I prefer the F5 play instead of the full game because I am much more confident in Smyly and Gutierrez giving up runs early. Gutierrez hasn’t gone longer than 4.2 IP this year with an 8.35 ERA while Smyly has been cold as of late, producing only one start over 5 innings and putting up a 3.97 ERA. I love this play and expect to see runs early.
Victor Oladipo u15.5 PRA (-120) 1u to win .83u
I love Victor Oladipo and maybe we will find out tonight that I should leave the NBA props to my guy @Beast__Picks, but this number seems too high to me. Oladipo has hit this number in 6/11 games so far in the postseason but unless he plays more minutes than average (24.3 MPG) I don’t see him reaching this. He is averaging 15.4 PRA, but when is missing this mark, he is missing it by a large margin. Even with Herro out, I expect a lot of the Heat’s GTD players to be ready and I think Boston’s defensive guards shut him down and make sure he is short of this number tonight.
Value POD: No goal first 9m30s Panthers @ Lightning (+135) 1u to win 1.35u
Through three games, the Lightning look fairly dominant in this series. I don’t expect much different tonight as they look to close out this series at home and I’m not sure how much fight the Panthers have left in them. I understand that both of these teams have a lot of offensive fire power but there hasn’t been a goal once in the first 9m30s of a game in this series yet and at plus-money, I will take that risk again tonight.