One common strategy to manage your bankroll when betting is to always bet the same amount, no matter what. It’s not one I subscribe to, but after yesterday, I have to admit I see the merits given how my day went on Tuesday.
Four of my five plays ended up going perfectly to plan, as even Genk came through for me in the Belgian league. Unfortunately, the one bet that I missed was my play of the day, which resulted in a great day turning into only an above average one. Going 4-1 is always a good thing, but when the one is twice as much as the other bets were, it’s not as good as it could have been.
So we’ve got some momentum, but it’s not as much as it could be. We’ll try to build off it anyway; here are my picks for May 11.
LEEDS-CHELSEA O2.5, -165
Chelsea’s defense is rather suspect, but it’s nowhere near as holey as Leeds, which has conceded 74 goals on the season. The Peacocks are hanging on the precipice of a return to the Championship, and their lousy goal differential means that they need wins, not draws, to secure safety. That means they’re going to push to score goals rather than park the bus, and that lends itself to an over.
CAPITALS-PANTHERS U6.5, +105
The Panthers’ goaltending hasn’t been all that strong in this series, yet they still have the series tied at 2 with Washington and they’re heading home to Sunrise despite their power play short-circuiting. That tells me that Florida is going to bounce back in Game 5, but there is zero value on the Panthers on the moneyline, which is why I’m backing the under. I think Florida wins a low-scoring game, because this series has shown that if Washington takes control, there will be goals.
NEW YORK RANGERS ML, -135
The Rangers have been the biggest disappointment of the first round are about to cost me my main bet of this part of the playoffs, as they’ve completely melted down in the past two games in Pittsburgh and now trail the series 3-1. They’re the more talented team, but I think they never really recovered from having Game 1 taken from them on a terrible call. I think they can stave off elimination here, but that will require them to rediscover the regular season form.
TEXAS RANGERS ML, -135
Well, this is awkward, as I’m taking two teams with the same name for the same odds to do the same thing in completely different sports. Shame this won’t happen next week, as I could have added Rangers of the Scottish Premier League for a full Rangers parlay. Anyway, the Rangers of MLB have dominated the Royals when they’ve come head-to-head, going 39-16 in their past 55 matchups with Kansas City in Arlington. With Matt Bush on the mound, I see that continuing.
TWINS TTU 3.5, +100
Minnesota might very well win this game (and I believe Pumba has the Twins claiming a 3-1 decision, which pays at +2000), but the Twins shouldn’t score more than three runs in the process, as the Astros have been lights out with their pitching. Houston’s bullpen is second only to the Yankees, and the Astros have held their past 10 opponents to three runs or less. Considering that includes the hard-hitting Blue Jays, don’t expect many fireworks from the Twins tonight. Minnesota’s going to need to win this one with pitching.