It’s the end of the month and the end of the NFL Draft, the latter of which has been quite lucrative for me. So far, I’ve picked three players’ and three teams’ situations, and the only one I got wrong was Trevor Penning, who I thought would be off the board at 16. Even that gets an asterisk, as I likely would have cashed that play too had the Saints not traded with the Commanders.
At this point, most of the names are off the board for the draft, so there’s not a ton of value there. Of course, if we get another Sam Howell prop to go in the fourth round, that might change the calculation, as these GMs really, really hate this QB class. Anyway, it’s time for my best bets for April 30.
TORONTO FC-FC CINCINNATI O3.5, +120
These teams give up goals like nobody’s business. Between them, Toronto and Cincinnati have conceded 33 goals this season, and only San Jose has a worse record for giving up goals than these two. With Toronto also adept at scoring goals, the over is very much in play for this one.
ORLANDO CITY ML, -140
With apologies to Charlotte play-by-play man and my good friend Will Palaszczuk, the Crowns just aren’t very dangerous on the road yet. Charlotte has proven a very useful side at Bank of America Stadium, and the trip to the Queen City is something no MLS side should relish taking. But on the road, Charlotte has just one point to its name. Orlando is likely to be in a foul mood after getting ripped by the Red Bulls, so Charlotte’s road woes are likely to get worse before they get better.
CHICAGO FIRE-NEW YORK RED BULLS NO ON BTTS, -130
The Fire have just five goals to their name and five goals conceded all season. A no on BTTS has hit in all but one game that Chicago has played, as the Fire do not have much of an attack yet play excellent defense. With the Red Bulls only giving up six markers this year, I think this will see another zero on the board for one of these sides.
PHILLIES-METS O7.5, -110
This number just seems very low with Kyle Gibson on the mound. I get that the Mets’ offense hasn’t exactly been stellar this season, but Tajuan Walker only made it two innings last time he faced the Phillies and asking the Mets’ bullpen to lock down Philadelphia for seven innings seems a tad unlikely. There might not be a lot of runs, but this number is manageable.
TIGERS +1.5, +120
The fact that I can get the Tigers with a run for plus money shows just how bad this one is supposed to go tonight. The Tigers have not played well at all to start the year, but there is some talent on this club, and once they play like it, they could be tough to beat. I don’t expect a lot of runs here, so the +1.5 play makes sense to me.
GAMBLERS-BANDITS U39.5, -110
I’m not buying the Tampa Bay Bandits as a top team, and I think this devolves into a defensive struggle. The Gamblers have been the weakest offense in the league, with the Bandits not a heck of a lot better after getting manhandled by New Orleans last week. I expect Tampa Bay will come out on top and might pair the Bandits and the under, as I am totally unconvinced that Houston can move the ball.
STALLIONS-BREAKERS O45.5, -110
On the other side of the coin, these two have had no trouble moving the football. Birmingham’s defense is rather suspect, but it will have the crowd on its side. That leads to an action-oriented atmosphere, and I think these two will put up some points. Nobody has looked better than New Orleans to date this season, and I expect that will continue.