My two parlays didn’t work out at all for me on Thursday, but none of that mattered because the New York Jets had things covered. Usually, relying on the Jets to do something right on draft day ends badly, but when it comes to cornerbacks, the Jets know what they’re doing, as the franchise that took Darrelle Revis made Sauce Gardner their next shutdown corner, winning me three different bets on his final destination and more than making up for my parlay failures.
Lines have been slow to come out on Day 2 of the draft, but this isn’t a day you want to overlook. As players start to fall, this is the time when value is out there, because big names will get priced WAY too early. In 2020, Jake Fromm was slated to go around 70th (give or take a few, I don’t recall the exact number I got him at), and I figured that there was little chance he’d go before the fourth round (97 or later) and hammered the over. Fromm waited until pick 167 to hear his name called, making that one of the easiest cashes I’ve ever had.
Hopefully, there’s another Fromm waiting to fall today. Here are my plays for April 29.
UNION BERLIN WIN TO NIL, -115
If you follow our podcast, you know that Union Berlin has been incredible at home this season. Out of 15 home matches, Union double chance and U3.5 is 12-3, with the lone exceptions being losses to Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund and a win over FC Cologne where Union put home a third goal in a 3-1 win. Against already-doomed Greuther Furth, I’m more worried about losing to a fourth Union goal than I am about one goal from the visitors, so I’ll back our iron defense at home.
ROCKIES ML, -120
Cincinnati is really awful this season, and Colorado has been a strong home team in recent years. I think the Rockies should bounce back beautifully today against the Reds’ weak lineup in Denver. Colorado would have been a playoff team last year if it could have played all 162 games at Coors Field, and I can’t pass on the Rockies at this price against 3-16 Cincinnati.
ATHLETICS ML, -160
Cleveland’s lack of an offense is catching up with it again, as the Guardians just got decked in four straight by the Angels and managed seven runs in the series. It gets no better in traveling to northern California, as the Athletics send ace Frankie Montas to the hill and the Guardians don’t get to use Shane Bieber again until Saturday. Cleveland might stop the seven-game skid tomorrow, but I think the Athletics are the play today.
GIANTS -1.5, -105
Shame on the schedulemakers for not stacking these times better so that a fan could see the Athletics and Giants play in the same day in the Bay Area. However, on the subject of the bet, San Francisco’s pitching is really good and Washington’s is really not. The Giants just outscored the Nationals 24-6 in three games in Washington, and the Nationals ride an eight-game skid and cross three time zones to face the well-rested Giants. I get the feeling that won’t end well.
SAM HOWELL O61.5, -110
With Kenny Pickett being the only quarterback off the board, that tells you that the NFL is not high on this class of quarterbacks. Because of that, I cannot see Howell going in the second round. That would require one of two things: either someone would have to really fall in love with Howell and reach for him, or three other quarterbacks (Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder and Matt Corral) all have to go in the second round. I don’t think that happens. I expect Howell won’t pull a full Fromm and will hear his name called tonight, but I expect it to occur in the third round, not the second.