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champions league wednesday

well here we are the champions league semi from anfield.  This home field for liverpool has been a fortress liverpool at home according to my model a whopping 2.14 gf chances at home and only giving up 0.80 gf chances.  Villarreal will not go quietly or easily having already dispatched of bayern Munich and juventus to get to this point. brilliantly shutting down high powered bayern in that match-up.  Villarreal willsit back and try to get liverpool on the counter and get to the space between the high line and Trent alexander-arnold.  with that in mind btts seems like a 4 unit play(+110) as this bet has hit in 60% of liverpool and Villarreal games and a massive 80% in Villarreal away games in the champions league.  If you want to sprinkle a side my play is liverpool to win in 90 mins for 2 units.  Remember to follow on Twitter @biggame16018249 for daily picks.  Remember bet with your head not over it.

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