Totals are the bane of my existence during football season, but for the past few months, they’ve actually been a nice source of wins for me. Out of six totals bets yesterday, four were cashes and one was a rainout, making for an excellent day at the office. Some of these early trends are starting to become real plays, such as the Diamondbacks being unable to hit and the Reds doing the same.
Of course, it is still early, and some of these plays can get very risky if you’re jumping on them based on just two weeks of information, such as the Blue Jays’ first inning play. But for the most part, the information available has been quite helpful. Here are my best bets for April 20.
UNION BERLIN DOUBLE CHANCE, +155
This might be wishcasting, but I’m going to try for it anyway. Union has struggled on the road this season, but the Iron Ones have won three straight coming into this match and have more to play for here than RB Leipzig. The Red Bulls have their sights set on the Champions League and trying to lock that down in the final few weeks of the season, and the fact that they have to play Union twice in a week means they might be content to let this match finish level and not tip their hand for Saturday’s match, which is the one that really matters to them.
By contrast, Union could land a spot in the Europa League by winning the DFB Pokal, a large achievement for the East Berlin side. It’s a hope play, but there’s a chance.
CHELSEA WIN TO NIL, +185
Arsenal is playing awful soccer at the moment, having been shut out in its past two away matches against Southampton and Crystal Palace and finding a way to lose to Brighton at the Emirates. Chelsea is coming off a 6-0 rout of Southampton in its most recent Premier League match and should be in a mood to put away the race for third place. The Blues shouldn’t have an issue here.
EVERTON-LEICESTER CITY NO ON BTTS, +110
There’s a very weird trend happening at Goodison Park as of late: a lot of 1-0 results. Five of the past six Premier League matches at Everton have finished 1-0 to somebody, and the Toffees have won the past two of them (the one exception was a 3-0 Everton win over Leeds). As such, I think a “No” on both teams to score holds a ton of value here, especially for plus money. If you really want to get aggressive, I like Everton to win and U2.5 at +450, as Everton is in 17th and badly needs a win. Leicester, by contrast, is stuck mid-table and nowhere near either the drop or European soccer, and I think Everton will be more motivated.
ANGELS-ASTROS U8.5, -110
Shohei Ohtani is better than he showed last time out, and I think he bounces back in a big way this time around. Plus, the Angels really haven’t been hitting the Astros as of late. In five games against Houston, Los Angeheim has only managed to score 13 runs, and six of those came in one game against Houston’s weakest pitchers. I think the Astros keep the Angels in check here, so as long as Ohtani pitches like normal, the under looks good.
ORIOLES TTU 3.5, -110
Baltimore wasn’t expected to do much of anything this season, and the Orioles aren’t disappointing. Baltimore has scored just 23 runs in 11 games and has put up three or fewer in nine of their first 11 contests in 2022. Meanwhile, Oakland sends Daulton Jeffries to the mound, and the 26-year-old held Philadelphia and Toronto to a combined two runs in his first two starts. This marks his first time this year pitching in pitcher-friendly Oakland, and I think he’ll have little trouble with the Orioles’ lineup.