Sometimes, the value is there but the result just doesn’t work out. That happened to me twice yesterday, as neither Stuttgart nor Wolverhampton could find the net to take advantage of plus-money situations. But that’s just a part of sports gambling, and that’s why those were value plays. I felt much more confident about the Mets and Blue Jays-Rangers going over, and both of those were comfortable cashes.
We’ve got more on the slate today, including a rare prop play from me. Here are my best bets for April 9.
NICK PIVETTA O5.5 STRIKEOUTS, +115
This is a bit of a risk, because Pivetta could always get knocked out of the game early. But if he does pitch five innings, he’s very likely to make this one happen. He averaged just over a strikeout per inning last season, and the Yankees strike out a lot, whiffing 15 times in the opener against Boston’s pitching staff. Pivetta whiffed seven the last time he faced New York, and I think he can get the job done here.
ROYALS ML, -120
Kansas City got off to a solid start against Cleveland, and Brad Keller tended to pitch fairly deep into games last season. Plus, the Guardians still aren’t hitting the ball well at all, managing just one run against Kansas City on opening day. Cleveland’s lineup still leaves a lot to be desired, which should give Kansas City an edge here.
BLUE JAYS -1.5, -110
I usually hate betting spread bets for baseball, but there’s really no reason not to when it comes to the Blue Jays. Toronto outscored Texas 10-1 after the top of the fourth on Friday, and the Blue Jays’ offense has the potential to do that to just about anybody. That’s even more true against the Rangers’ weak bullpen, and even more so after the Jays got deep into the bullpen in the opener. Toronto should cruise here.
LOS ANGELES GALAXY-LOS ANGELES FC O3.5, +135
This is aggressive, but this is El Trafico. These two teams tend to produce a lot of goals when they play each other, as they produced a six-goal thriller last season in a 3-3 draw. Expect goals early and often when these teams face off, making over 3.5 the way to play this matchup.
HOUSTON DYNAMO WIN TO NIL, +220
Thomas talked about the Earthquakes’ poor performance this season on the podcast, and I happen to agree with him. San Jose has a grand total of zero goals away from home this season, and I don’t see that changing here. As long as the Dynamo can produce something at home, I think this is a great chance for a plus money bet.