One of the most important things about sports betting is to know when to stay away. There will always be lines available to bet, but what good is it to take a chance on a line that you don’t know enough about to try to get a good number with?
That’s something I’m never going to do either on here or with my actual bets. When I play anything on my bet slip and especially recommend it here, it’s going to be because I’ve done the research and feel good about the pick. Will it always be the right play? Absolutely not, but I’ll try my best each time. Here are my best bets for March 29.
TEXAS A&M-WASHINGTON STATE U132.5, -110
The oddsmakers have gotten smarter on Washington State, but not completely. These are both top-35 defenses per KenPom, and neither of them has a great offense. Washington State is going to muck up the game again because that’s the way the Cougars like to play, and Texas A&M will likely go right along with that. The Aggies haven’t allowed any of their past six opponents to break 65, and I think that continues here.
XAVIER TTO 69, -110
The Musketeers have reached 70 points in five straight games, and they’ve done it against better defenses than St. Bonaventure. Plus, they don’t have the issue of adjusting to a new arena. Xavier plays St. John’s every year and has already experienced life in Madison Square Garden, so the Musketeers should be comfortable in this situation. I thin they score here.
POLAND-SWEDEN O2.5, +170
This is a big risk, because both teams have reason to play conservatively and go into extra time. But I think they’re going to go aggressive in this one, because both Robert Lewandowski and Zlatan Ibrahimovic want to get to the World Cup and will show their quality. I expect this one to open up and three goals are a real possibility.
TUNISIA-MALI U1.5, +105
This is going to be the match that soccer haters point to in order to claim soccer is boring instead of beautiful. Mali have never qualified for the World Cup, but that looks unlikely to change with Tunisia holding an away goal and a lead. The Eagles of Carthage (and the qualifier is needed here, as Mali is the Eagles) seldom give up more than one goal against African opposition (seven of Tunisia’s past eight matches against African sides have finished 1-0), and the past three meetings between the sides have finished 1-0. Remember, extra-time goals do not count for soccer bets, so this should be a low-scoring matchup.
VENEZUELA TTU 0.5, +110
Venezuela has finished last in CONMEBOL as usual and has absolutely nothing to play for, and Colombia has traditionally been stingy when facing its northern South American neighbors. The Vinotinto have been shut out three straight against the Coffee Growers, and Colombia must win to have any hope of reaching the intercontinental playoff. Look for them to blank Venezuela here.