It’s Day 1 of the main bracket of the NCAA tournament, so we’re going to try to change things up a bit for today’s parlay day. Normally, I give out three plays per parlay, but today, we have 16 games that everyone cares about, so we’re going to try to get something good on each game. If any of these hit, that should cover your bets for tomorrow and possibly Saturday as well.
So let’s get started: here are my plays for March 17.
FIRST WINDOW PARLAY: MICHIGAN 1H ML, NORFOLK STATE +23.5, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE +3.5, BOISE STATE +3.5, +960
The Michigan game starts first, which means it’s 10:15 a.m. for Colorado State’s body clocks. That is not conducive to a good start for the Rams, and I think they spend the first half chasing the game. Norfolk State scares me because of how good Baylor can be, but I think the Bears are too banged up to cover this number against an experienced Spartans squad.
I think Boise State and South Dakota State can and will win outright, and I love the idea of backing the Broncos on the moneyline. If you want to take them to win, this jumps to +1500, and that’s a reasonable gamble for two solid underdogs.
SECOND WINDOW PARLAY: RICHMOND TTU 70.5, LONGWOOD-TENNESSEE U135, GONZAGA -21, NORTH CAROLINA -4.5, +1050
On our March Madness preview show, Kyle and DJ both talked about Iowa’s offense and how the over is a lock. That might happen, but if it does, it won’t be because of the Spiders. Richmond is not a great shooting team and Iowa just held Purdue to 66. The Spiders need this game in the 60s to have a chance, and I can’t see them getting 70.
Tennessee is a poor shooting team but plays excellent defense and should have too much for Longwood, while Gonzaga and North Carolina shouldn’t have too many problems in their games.
THIRD WINDOW PARLAY: KENTUCKY TTO 74.5, INDIANA +3.5, SAN DIEGO STATE -2, NEW MEXICO STATE-CONNECTICUT U135.5, +840
Kentucky hasn’t been held under 76 points all year by a mid-major and Saint Peter’s defense gave up 91 to St. John’s and 85 to Providence. Indiana might struggle early after the long flight to Portland, but I think the Hoosiers can win this one outright with how Trayce Jackson-Davis is playing.
San Diego State’s defense should suffocate Creighton, and both New Mexico State and Connecticut are strong rebounding teams who should limit the other team to one shot attempt. That’s not conducive to over basketball unless the first shot is falling.
FOURTH WINDOW PARLAY: VERMONT-ARKANSAS O138.5, SAN FRANCISCO-MURRAY STATE O136.5, UCLA -13.5, TEXAS SOUTHERN-KANSAS U147, +1100
Vermont puts up points in bunches against America East opponents and isn’t slowing down against Arkansas, which enjoys pushing the tempo. San Francisco also plays fast, and Murray State has shown no hesitation in scoring in the 70s when it needs to score to win. UCLA should have too much for Akron, and I don’t like Texas Southern’s chances to score a ton after watching the Tigers’ offense against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. I think there’s a good chance this finishes the evening strong.