If you’re not betting the play-in games, you’re missing out on a golden opportunity. These four games in Dayton offer a good chance to use the lessons of the season and put them in action, which is how last night saved me from a 2-3 night with my totals plays. Indiana simply had played much stronger down the stretch than Wyoming, and Texas Southern played much tougher competition than Texas A&M Corpus Christi. Both games took some time, but eventually went according to form.
We have two more on the docket before things really get rolling on Thursday, and if you’re not planning to watch Bryant-Wright State, you really should change that. This is the chance to see the nation’s best scorer in action in Peter Kiss, and given that he’s facing a virtual road game in Dayton, you might not get the chance to see him play Arizona. Here are my best plays for March 16.
BRYANT-WRIGHT STATE O154.5, -110
Bryant simply plays too fast for an under to make sense here. The Bulldogs are actually not great at shooting, but when you put up 60 shots a game, you’re going to score a lot of points based on nothing more than the law of averages. Meanwhile, the Raiders have a suspect defense and put up a fair amount of points themselves. It’s going to take a lot of action, but this should hit the number.
VIRGINIA -3, -110
Mississippi State couldn’t win a game on the road under the best of circumstances. Now the Bulldogs are supposed to go to Charlottesville, face one of the five most annoying teams in the nation to play against and get a road victory in the NIT? Not happening. I look for Mississippi State to completely mail it in during the second half, as the Bulldogs get frustrated with playing at Virginia’s plodding pace.
FLORIDA GULF COAST -2.5, -110
Detroit has been outstanding in Calihan Hall. Detroit has been a nightmare away from Calihan Hall. The Titans lost four of their final six on the road and didn’t break 70 points in any of them. Dunk City has won six of seven in Fort Myers and was able to handle the likes of Jacksonville at home, so there’s a lot to like about taking the Eagles here, even in the midst of a coaching change.
NICHOLLS STATE-SMU U152.5, -110
This seems a little high. SMU wasn’t getting into the 80s with much regularity, and that’s what it’s going to take for this number to cash. Even if SMU gets to 84 points as projected, Nicholls State would still have to reach 69 points to send this over the number. The Colonels score a lot against Southland defenses, but this is not a Southland defense. This should stay under the total.
RUTGERS ML, -105
Could Notre Dame shoot the lights out from deep and ruin this for me? Absolutely. But I think Rutgers has played in a better league and plays better defense, plus has tournament experience from beating an ACC squad last season in Clemson. The Scarlet Knights finished fourth in a rugged Big Ten, and while Notre Dame was second in the ACC, the ACC was pretty soft this year.
