Sometimes, it just isn’t your day, and that was the case on Monday, as Fairleigh Dickinson and Texas Tech turned a pair of comfortable wins into surprising losses despite being in full control at halftime. FDU’s was by far the more egregious, as the Knights managed to fritter away a 15-point lead to Central Connecticut State and lose by a point, while Texas Tech never managed to build on its eight-point halftime edge because the Red Raiders let Kansas State get hot from the outside.
I’ve now run into hot shooting from the visiting team in University Park and Lubbock on back-to-back nights, which is hard enough to believe on its face, but then you throw in that the visitors were Nebraska and Kansas State. Put simply, after a stretch like that, one of these has to go my way soon. Here are my plays for March 1.
BUCKNELL-LAFAYETTE O145.5, -110
These teams have played twice, and both meetings went to overtime. While that’s probably not going to happen a third time, the over looks likely because neither team looks capable of stopping the other. Lafayette has had no answer for Andrew Funk’s shooting and Andre Screen’s inside play. Bucknell couldn’t stop Neal Quinn inside or Jon Brantley outside. Expect points in what could be the final game of Lafayette coach Fran O’Hanlon’s career.
DETROIT TTO 72.5, -110
Only Northern Kentucky has managed to keep Detroit from scoring at least 74 points at home this season, and Green Bay is nowhere near as good on defense as Northern Kentucky. The Titans are a classic home-court hero, as they’re 8-1 at Calihan Hall for the year. The Phoenix didn’t make the trek to Michigan this year because of COVID issues, but they’ve got to go there now, and it’s not likely to go well for a team that’s 5-24 on the season. The Titans should take full advantage of the Phoenix’s weak defense.
KENNESAW STATE TTO 78, -110
This is a rematch of the famous triple-overtime game where an under looked secure, but the over finally cashed in the third extra frame. I don’t think Kennesaw State’s going to need 55 minutes to do that this time, because EKUnders only happen at McBrayer Arena. When the Colonels have to leave Richmond, they can’t stop anybody. In eight ASUN road games, Eastern Kentucky’s giving up an average of 82.5 points per game, and even Jacksonville, which plays like it’s running through quicksand, got to 81 against the Colonels. The Owls should put up a big number here.
NORTH ALABAMA TTU 65.5, -110
Dunk City looks poised to turn this one into Blowout City. North Alabama comes into this game as losers of 12 of its past 13, and the Lions already took a 92-60 loss to Florida Gulf Coast three weeks ago. Four of UNA’s past six road games have seen the Lions fail to crack 60 points, so this trend looks like a solid play.
MISSISSIPPI-KENTUCKY O142, -110
We’ve seen six straight overs from Mississippi, and now the Rebels are going into Lexington, where Kentucky loves to get out and run. The Wildcats probably don’t need much help from Mississippi to put up a big number, but chances are that they’re going to get it. As long as Kentucky does what it usually does at home, this total should be in range.