Sometimes, you just know a game isn’t going to work. And that was exactly what happened with North Carolina and Virginia Tech, as both the Tar Heels and the Hokies were completely off with their shooting for the entire second half, turning what should have been a fairly easy over into a result that wasn’t even close. It wasn’t even that either team played good defense; it was just one of those days.
And that’s the reality of sports betting: you are going to have days like this from time to time. All you can do is hope the losses don’t happen too often and stick to your insights and analysis. One outlier doesn’t mean everything you know is wrong.
Here are my plays for February 20.
SAINT PETER’S -2, -110
The Peacocks are rising to Jacksonville status for me, as they’re becoming almost an auto-bet at this point. Saint Peter’s continues to get little respect, yet the Peacocks keep getting the job done in the second half, where they tend to pull away from the lesser squads of the MAAC. With five games left on the slate, the Peacocks need to keep this up and land one of the byes in the MAAC tournament.
MISSOURI +4.5, -110
Missouri away from Columbia is a horror show. Missouri at home is difficult to beat, and Mississippi State has been one of the worst road teams in the nation. The Bulldogs have no wins away from home this season, and Missouri has played both Auburn and Florida tough in Mizzou Arena. Staying within four and winning outright is very doable for the Tigers here.
SMU +3, -110
The wrong team appears favored in this one. The Mustangs are 12-0 at home this season and even though Memphis has won five straight ATS, the Tigers are on their third straight game away from home. This road swing has gone through Houston and Cincinnati, and a third straight road win seems a bridge too far for the Tigers, especially when they’ve already lost by eight at home to the Mustangs.
PURDUE FORT WAYNE -4, -110
This spread seems more than a little high for the Panthers, who have only hit 66 twice in their past nine games. Purdue Fort Wayne has held five of its past six opponents under this number, including Milwaukee itself. The Mastodons tend to get the job done against lesser teams, and I think both the spread and Milwaukee TTU 66.5 hold a lot of value.
USC -6, -110
Washington State hasn’t broken 60 points in any of its past four games, and the Cougars look like they’ve just about given up on getting anything else done this season. Washington State has actually had a nice season getting to 14-11 to this point, but there’s little to suggest that the Cougars are capable of righting the ship against an SC squad that plays decent defense and needs a win. I’d also play Washington State TTU 63.5 here.