When you get into February and teams start to get fatigued from a long season, it’s important to make sure that you know your squads. With 358 teams, some teams are going to naturally be much more consistent than others, and this is where paying attention to the first three months of the season really comes into play.
Right now, my best example is Jacksonville. At 17-4 ATS, the Dolphins have been almost automatic for me whenever they take the court, and especially when they do so at home. Jacksonville holds a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS mark when playing at Swisher Gymnasium, so when the Dolphins are at home, they’re almost certainly on my card (and usually there on the road as well). Last night, they came through again, blasting Stetson and earning me a win for the day.
With parlays, it’s even more important to know your squads. Hopefully, I’ve figured them out well enough here; here are my plays for February 17.
PENNSYLVANIA PARLAY: MINNESOTA-PENN STATE U129.5, IUPUI-ROBERT MORRIS U124.5, LONG ISLAND-SAINT FRANCIS U149.5, +515
I hit an all-Pennsylvania parlay back in August, and I’m trying it again with three unders from the Keystone State. Penn State remains the place where rock fights happen, and Minnesota is coming off putting up a mere 45 points against Ohio State. This total is rising because the teams played out a 146-point game in Minneapolis, but Penn State isn’t likely to shoot 55% again. Robert Morris has played under in seven of its past eight games, and given that RMU coach Andy Toole wanted to lock down on the Jaguars last time, there’s a good chance that repeats. Finally, Saint Francis has also been an under team, and the Red Flash and Sharks needed overtime to even get into the 140s last time. I like how these unders look.
BIG SKY PARLAY: WEBER STATE -15.5, PORTLAND STATE TTO 75.5, MONTANA STATE-EASTERN WASHINGTON O145, +595
It’s time to cut bait on the Hornets. Sacramento State is 0-9-1 ATS in its past 10 games and has to go to Weber State after losing to the Wildcats by 20 in Sacramento. Portland State seems to be a completely different team on offense, having scored 73 or more in eight straight games. The Vikings dropped 97 on Northern Arizona in Flagstaff and should be able to score again playing at the lower elevation of Portland. Finally, Montana State and Eastern Washington both shot in the 30s last time but still scored 134 points. I think the offenses will be back on track this time.
NHL PARLAY: CAPITALS ML, BLUES ML, RANGERS ML, +235
Fade the Flyers (2-8 in past 10) whenever you can, so we’re taking the Capitals. Fade the Canadiens (lost 16 of their past 17 and 10 straight) whenever you can, so we’re backing the Blues. That’s two down and one to go, and I thought about taking my Senators here, but with Craig Anderson in goal and facing his old team, that can work in either direction, so I don’t want to touch that one. Instead, we’ve got the Rangers and their excellent home record playing in the Garden against Detroit, who’s got fewer road wins than anyone not named Montreal. That’ll work.