The problem with betting overs is that when teams wait too long to get going, your total is going to find itself sunk. That happened to me twice yesterday, as the Capitals didn’t get going until the start of the third period and Longwood didn’t hit the gas on offense until the final five minutes, by which point the Lancers were more concerned with protecting their lead. It’s why sometimes, you just have to find beauty in your rock fights (thank you again, Penn State).
The week’s not off to a great start, but it’s not off to a terrible one either. We’ll try to get back into it here with Wednesday’s games; here are my best bets for February 16.
BOSTON COLLEGE TTU 60, -110
Throw out Boston College’s win over Notre Dame back in December. First, Notre Dame has gotten a lot better since that game, and second, BC is a much different team in Chestnut Hill than it is on the road. On their past four trips away from Conte Forum, the Eagles have scored 55, 47, 57 and 54 points, and the best team they played in that stretch was Wake Forest. The Fighting Irish should cruise in this one.
JACKSONVILLE -2, -110
Jacksonville has to have this game. Thanks to the ASUN’s tournament format this year, the difference between second and third place in the East Division is gigantic. Finishing third means not only would the Dolphins need to survive a first-round game, but they’d have to survive a quarterfinal at Jacksonville State or Bellarmine and a trip to Liberty just to reach the championship game. Second, on the other hand, means a much easier quarterfinal as well as keeping Liberty and one of the two West powers on the other side of the bracket. The Dolphins have three games left until the season finale at East No. 3 Florida Gulf Coast, so they can’t afford a single slip.
LAFAYETTE +1, -110
The Greyhound bus has come to a screeching halt, as Loyola has failed to cover in seven of its past eight games and hasn’t been scoring much of anything lately. Lafayette hasn’t been great at home this year, but it’s been serviceable. The only teams to come to Kirby Sports Center and win in Patriot League play are Colgate, Navy and Boston University, the league’s three strongest teams. Loyola’s not on that tier at this point in the season.
MIAMI -1.5, -110
Maybe I’m wrong and Miami gives back all of its momentum from beating Wake Forest in Winston-Salem, but I doubt it. The Hurricanes have played well on the road for the most part this season, and they’re in control of their situation as they look toward the NCAA tournament. Miami needs to go 5-1 or better to lock up its spot in the NCAAs without having to do anything at the ACC tournament in Brooklyn. They should be able to cover this small number against a Louisville team that has lost six straight.
MARQUETTE -13, -110
If this game doesn’t set Marquette right, then the Golden Eagles become a hard fade moving into March. Losing at Providence by a basket was perfectly understandable. Losing by eight at Connecticut wasn’t great, but understandable after the high of sweeping Villanova. Losing at Butler? Zero excuse. There’s even less excuse for not doing the job against Georgetown, which is 0-7 on the road and 0-13 in the league, including a 28-point loss to Marquette in Washington. The Golden Eagles should race past the Hoyas here.