Unfortunately, Wednesday was a prime example of just how thin the margin can be between victory and defeat when betting. Rarely do you get a comfortable rout, as I did with Jacksonville handling Eastern Kentucky rather easily on both spread and scoreboard. Instead, you’re more likely to get days like yesterday, where things can go either way.
Here’s how my day went yesterday: Florida State and Wake Forest never came close, resulting in two losses, while Jacksonville put an easy win on the board. Then we had the three “almost” games: North Florida (+2.5) trails by two, goes 1-for-2 at the line, fouls and goes down 3, misses two free throws and then clangs a three at the buzzer to lose on the spread. Notre Dame (-7) gets two shots up five with a 90% free throw shooter, but he hits one of two and the Irish win by six. Finally, Illinois State (-4) leads by six in overtime…but the Redbirds give up a 3-pointer with two second left, resulting in a three-point win.
One play in each could have given me two wins and a push and turned my day into a win. Instead, it was an awful day for me and not the way you want to go into parlay day. But we’re still going to try anyway; here are my best plays for February 10.
EASTERN PARLAY: PURDUE FORT WAYNE -19.5, WAGNER ML, LONGWOOD -7.5, +360
The situation is dire for IUPUI right now: the Jaguars have six scholarship players and are advertising open tryouts for their final seven games. Purdue Fort Wayne makes decent teams look bad at home and should tear apart its in-state rival. Wagner is 12-0 in the Northeast Conference and needs to keep the wins coming so the road to the NCAAs goes through Staten Island, and Longwood has been a cover machine when it has the rebounding edge. Guess what South Carolina Upstate doesn’t do very well?
NHL PARLAY: BLUES ML, CAPITALS ML, PENGUINS-SENATORS O6, +265
St. Louis gets to face New Jersey, which had lost seven straight prior to waxing the absolutely awful Canadiens. Speaking of the Canadiens, they’re facing Washington tonight. That’s two parts of this play. Finally, whenever Pittsburgh and Ottawa get together, there are usually plenty of goals to be had. The past five meetings between the Penguins and Senators have averaged 8.8 goals scored between the teams.
BIG SKY PARLAY: PORTLAND STATE TTU 67.5, IDAHO ML, NORTHERN COLORADO-SACRAMENTO STATE O139.5, +425
I’m not buying Portland State’s surge. The Vikings have won four straight and averaged 88.75 points per game, but it’s come against slumping Northern Colorado and middling Sacramento State and Northern Arizona. Montana State plays excellent defense, holding six of its seven visitors to Bozeman to 65 points or less, and the Bobcats have held their past five opponents overall below that number. Idaho State is 0-11 on the road this year, but the Bengals have looked better recently, so I don’t want to mess with Idaho and the spread.
Finally, something is wrong with Northern Colorado’s defense right now. The Bears have let eight of their past nine foes into the 70s and Sacramento State already dropped 85 on them in Greeley, so if Northern Colorado does its share of the scoring, this total should be fine.