Normally, Three-Play Thursday leads to some success because of the Big Sky. Yesterday, I still had success, but it wasn’t because of the Big Sky, as Sacramento State inexplicably let Idaho State back in the game and failed to cover and Idaho just couldn’t hang with Montana.
Luckily, my other league is the Atlantic Sun, and with Jacksonville and Eastern Kentucky on the floor, I had what I needed to create a winning parlay. The Dolphins did what they do (win at home), the Colonels did what they do (hit an under) and to close the deal, I let Wisconsin do what everyone does to Nebrasketball. The Badgers made it interesting when Nebraska drilled a 3 to nearly backdoor it, but getting the line at -7.5 meant a cash at +490.
So we’ve got some momentum and some cash to play with as we head into a light Friday slate before a lot of games on Saturday. Here are my best bets for January 28.
DAYTON -5.5, -110
The Flyers have to have this game to have any real hope at making it as an at-large to the NCAA tournament. Dayton won’t get much of a benefit from beating Rhode Island, but the Flyers absolutely cannot afford to lose a game to the Rams, as that would be a Quad 3 defeat. Rhode Island is coming off two home losses and should be a manageable foe for Dayton.
NEW HAMPSHIRE -2, -110
The Wildcats are 7-0 at home and have won all seven by at least two points. I think I’ll walk away with no worse than a push here, as Stony Brook hasn’t been very good on the road and New Hampshire is coming off a solid home win against Maine. As long as New Hampshire hits its 3’s, I like my chances.
BOISE STATE TTU 60.5, -110
Teams don’t put up points at the Save Mart Center. The only one to break 60 all year in Fresno is Idaho, and that’s because the Vandals play absolutely no defense themselves and get bad offenses into the 80s. Fresno State normally prides itself on defense, and the Bulldogs will likely do that again here. Boise might win the game, but it’s likely doing so in the 50s.
SAINT PETER’S -6, -110
The Peacocks’ defense is for real at the MAAC level, and Manhattan doesn’t play defense anywhere near well enough to stop them from taking over the game. Saint Peter’s doesn’t have a great offense, but the Peacocks are solid rebounders and should get second chances in this one. They should be the choice here.
CAPITALS ML, +110
No denying it, the Capitals are playing pretty poorly at the moment. But that said, Dallas just found a way to lose to Montreal, and the best team the Stars have beaten in their four-game winning streak is New Jersey. Washington is much better than the Devils and offers solid value at plus money.