We’re in the second part of the soccer season in Europe, which means we’ve got a lot of data available with which to find some winning bets. I managed to find a big one last week, as Monchengladbach continued its stunning mastery of Bayern Munich with yet another win over the Bavarians, earning me a +650 cash with my dart.
If you listened to our podcast, most of these picks won’t be a surprise to you. However, I’ve got a wrinkle to throw in to give me a dart or two to try. Here are my best plays for a few matches for this Soccer Saturday.
WOLVES ML, +135
If you want to get really aggressive here, I’m also going to back Wolves to win by exactly one goal (+280) because 15 of Wolves’ past 16 Premier League wins have come by exactly one goal. But if you’re just trying to get a win, getting plus money with Wolves against Southampton holds a lot of value given that the Saints have failed to win in five straight visits to the Molineux. There’s another solid bet here with a No on BTTS (-140), as Wolves’ past nine Premier League matches have seen at least one clean sheet. Given that, I’d also look at Wolves and under 2.5 (+310) and a correct score play of 1-0 (+550).
JUVENTUS AND U2.5, +230
Juve has been every ignorant stereotype of soccer come to life this year when it plays at home, as only 20 goals have found the mesh in 10 games at the Allianz Stadium this season. Five of those markers came in one match against Sampdoria, so the chances of seeing more than two goals in a Juventus match in Turin are not high. That’s especially true given Udinese has COVID issues and will be less than full strength, so the Old Lady looks like a solid play here. If you don’t want to be this risky, backing Juve to win to nil (+105) or just Udinese to get blanked (-120) holds good value.
UNION BERLIN-HOFFENHEIM U2.5, +110
Everyone is expecting goals here, but there’s reason to think this will be lower-scoring: Union is without leading scorer Taiwo Awoniyi, who is competing in the Africa Cup of Nations. The Iron Ones haven’t won a match in which he hasn’t scored all season, but they’ve been incredibly stingy on defense at their home ground. In eight matches at the Stadion An der Alten Forsterei, Union has given up eight goals, and five were to Bayern. Otherwise, nobody has scored more than once on them in East Berlin. The past two meetings between the sides have finished level, so backing a draw (+240) holds plenty of value, as well as a 1-1 score (+575).
ASTON VILLA-MANCHESTER UNITED BTTS, -155
Aston Villa has played nine matches at Villa Park this year and has never failed to find the net. Manchester United has played 12 matches away from Old Trafford in all competitions and has never failed to find the net. You can see where this one is going. I would also throw in a bet on Aston Villa to score exactly once (+155), as that’s happened in the Lions’ past four matches against the Red Devils.
AJAX AMSTERDAM AND U2.5, +375
Is this a bit of a dart? Sure. But Ajax has given up just four goals all season, and its best scorer Sebastien Haller won’t be on the pitch because he’s playing in the Africa Cup of Nations. As such, I think Ajax reverses the result from its last meeting with Utrecht and wins a low-scoring battle. Utrecht won the first meeting 1-0, but I like Ajax on a 2-0 win (+800) here.
CORRECT SCORE DOUBLE: WOLVES 1-0 SOUTHAMPTON; UNION BERLIN 1-1 HOFFENHEIM, +4300
This is a dart, but it’s worth a shot. These numbers have a good chance to hit based off the recent past as well as the absences they’re each dealing with. Any time you can turn $5 into over $200 with something that’s got a reasonable chance of cashing, it’s worth a try.