Yesterday was a perfect example of how getting your number at the right time makes all the difference. If you waited a bit on Florida State, you got the Seminoles at +3.5, and that hook made the difference when the Seminoles botched the onside kick and let Florida run out the clock with an FSU cover.
On the other side of the ledger, if you waited too long to grab Oklahoma State, you paid the price when the Cowboys bled the clock rather than try to score again, resulting in an Oklahoma State win by four against a 4.5-point spread. Of course, I gave three extra points, so I was cooked either way, but if you weren’t that aggressive, it still backfired.
Hopefully, we’ve gotten these numbers at the right time. Here are my best plays for November 28.
BENGALS -3.5, -110
Pittsburgh really isn’t as good as its record suggests. The Steelers are 4-1-1 in their past six games, but their best win was over Cleveland. The other wins were over Seattle, Chicago and Denver, and they managed to tie winless Detroit. Cincinnati seems back on track after beating Las Vegas, and the Bengals have a chance to sweep the Steelers for the first time since 2009. That should motivate the young Bengals to play an inspired game.
PANTHERS -1, -110
Miami is due to come back to earth soon, and this might be the game where it happens. The Dolphins rely on quick starts to get the offense rolling, and that’s really not what happens when facing Carolina. The Panthers are a defense-heavy team that’s much better away from Charlotte than they are at home. Carolina has 10 covers in its past 12 road games, and I think they can get another here.
EASTERN KENTUCKY CBB -6.5, -110
You need to know about Eastern Kentucky, which was already a senior-dominated team before the NCAA gave last year’s seniors an extra year in college. Jannson Williams and Braxton Beverly are back after using that free year, and the Colonels came up with two solid freshmen in Devontae Blanton and Curt Lewis. EKU is a contender in the Atlantic Sun, and the Colonels should be able to handle Radford here.
CHARGERS -3, -110
I’m worried here because Los Angeles and Denver are both inconsistent, but I can’t ignore this trend: the Bolts have won and covered in five straight games against their AFC West rivals. Los Angeles seems to have figured out how to play against its divisional foes, so I’ll bank on that one more time.
BROWNS +3.5, -110
The Browns are the kind of team that you fade as a favorite and ride as an underdog. When nobody is expecting Cleveland to play well, that’s when the Browns are at their best. Baltimore is just 2-4 ATS in its past six games, and the Ravens really lucked out in getting the cover against Chicago a week ago. Cleveland has a shot to win the game outright.