The early window was bad yesterday for college football, but the late window made up for it to earn a 3-3 day. Plus, my upset of the week hit, so it was a win overall. This is why you shouldn’t get too aggressive with your stake in one part of the day, nor should you get discouraged by a bad start and give up on the day entirely because of a bad beginning.
That basically sums up the week perfectly: Monday and Tuesday were rough, but we came out with a win overall with a strong finish. And now we’ve got the NFL to kick off a new week; here are my best plays for November 21.
PACKERS -1, -110
Green Bay has been a cover machine ever since the disastrous opening game of the season. This isn’t a typical Packers team that uses Aaron Rodgers’ arm to bury its opponents in points; this is a team with a fierce defense that throws opponents out of their game plans and plays up to expectations. Minnesota, on the other hand, has let down bettors and its fans all year long. Even though it’s indoors in Minneapolis, there’s no way I’m abandoning the Packers here.
DOLPHINS, -3.5, -110
Common wisdom says that these two bumbling franchises are 1 and 1A in AFC East incompetence. That’s not the case, as Miami is clearly a few steps ahead of the Jets (but still well behind the Bills and Patriots). The Dolphins have covered in six of seven meetings with Gang Green, with the one exception being a push. Joe Flacco gets the start for New York here, but it doesn’t really matter who starts for the Jets; the Dolphins should be the better team again.
PANTHERS, -3, -110
I’m banking on the Carolina secondary and Washington’s incompetence on the road in this one. The Football Team managed to win on the road once in Atlanta, but the Falcons have been notorious for giving games away for years now. Washington looked good against Tampa Bay, but this looks like a letdown spot against an opponent who it doesn’t match up well with. Carolina drops back into coverage more than the Bucs do, which should lead to some turnovers and short fields for Cam Newton. The Black Cats should get above .500 here.
COLTS, +7, -110
The Colts haven’t lost in regulation in seven weeks, and the Bills are proving incredibly inconsistent. Buffalo statistically has the third-best run defense in the NFL, but the Bills haven’t faced a ground game as potent as the Colts, who are moving the ball well and should be able to keep pace with Josh Allen and friends. The over might be a good bet because of the Colts’ weak secondary, but I think Indianapolis can at least keep this within one score for the cover.
SAINTS +3, -110
Let me get this straight: Philadelphia is 0-4 at Lincoln Financial Field this year, and the Eagles are a running team facing the top run defense in the league in New Orleans. And I’m getting points with the Saints? This honestly has me a little concerned that this line might be too good to be true, because there seems to be no reason Philadelphia should be favored in this game. I’ll take my free field goal, but there’s a good chance I don’t need it.