Yesterday started out great for us, but the finish wasn’t quite what I was hoping for. Turns out I should have played San Diego State instead of Washington, as that proved to be a solid cash while the Huskies disappointed yet again. I’m officially done with Washington until 2022, as the Huskies have proven to be a team I cannot trust at all.
I’m a little worried about today’s slate, because I don’t really like any of these NFL games, especially after the craziness of a week ago. But we’re going to try anyway; here are my top picks for November 7.
PATRIOTS -3.5, -110
Honestly, it doesn’t feel like it matters who starts this game for the Panthers: either Sam Darnold or P.J. Walker is going up against the brilliance of Bill Belichick. Belichick against a young, inexperienced quarterback is almost always a few turnovers waiting to happen, and Carolina’s offense doesn’t have enough weapons to protect either one. New England should be the play.
FALCONS +3.5 1H, -110
What have we learned with the Falcons? Terrible closers, but very good starters. Atlanta is very much a first-half team and has led at the break four weeks running. I’m not going to push that further than I have to when the game is in New Orleans, but I will take this trend and use it to my advantage. I think the Falcons can go in at half within a field goal.
COWBOYS -10, -110
Don’t be scared off by the big number here. Dallas is the much healthier team, is playing at home and is going against a really weak defense in a Von Miller-less Denver. The Broncos send pressure far too often against a Cowboys team that throws all over the field, and Denver really doesn’t have the weapons to answer back if Dallas gets on a roll. The Cowboys look solid here.
BROWNS +3.5, -130
When in doubt, take the points in a divisional matchup. Cincinnati has actually owned this matchup ATS over the past six seasons, but the Bengals were the underdog in all of those matchups. Now they’re favored, and Cincinnati really hasn’t dealt with the expectations that come with being favored all that well. With five Bengals games this year decided by three points, this is a case where it pays to buy the point.
KINGS -1.5, -110
The Pacers are 0-5 SU away from home this season, so unless you think Sacramento is going to win this game by exactly one point, there’s good reason to jump on the Kings here. Sacramento is lighting up scoreboards this season, and playing another fast-paced game might not be what Indiana needs so soon after a hard-fought battle in Portland. Laying the points with the Kings seems like a good idea.
EAGLES +1.5, -110
I hate both teams in this spot. The Eagles are completely untrustworthy and don’t have a home win all season, while the Chargers are crossing three time zones after falling at home to the Patriots. But the difference is that the Eagles like to run the ball, and that’s the Chargers’ biggest weakness. Teams have figured out that the best way to keep Justin Herbert from hurting them is to keep him off the field by gashing Los Angeles’ last-place run defense. I can back Philly’s ground game at the Linc.