Southampton should have been a winning bet, but I overplayed my hand and opted for a BTTS bet along with taking the Saints to win, based on previous trends against Aston Villa. Of course, the Saints did get the win, but it finished 1-0, ruining that play.
But aside from that, Friday was a successful day. We had a 3-2 performance, and the two losses were only because I pushed the envelope too far on Southampton and the Kings when a moneyline bet would have worked. Live and learn, and get back after it; here are my best plays for November 6.
CHELSEA WIN TO NIL, -120
Yes, I know I just said I got greedy on Southampton, but I can’t ignore the fact that Chelsea have conceded just three goals all season in going top of the league. The Blues’ defense is for real, and I can’t see Burnley finding a way to breach Chelsea’s back four in this situation. I don’t love adding the to nil part of this bet, but I don’t see any way not to do this with Chelsea as such a huge favorite.
ATALANTA AND O2.5, -105
This shouldn’t be too much of an issue. Both teams scoring has cashed in nine of Atalanta’s past 10 matches, so if you want to take La Dea to win and BTTS at +175, I don’t blame you. Personally, I’ll go with the more conservative play, as Cagliari have been a wreck this year, giving up 24 goals and sitting last in Serie A. Atalanta are leaking goals, but I think I’ll be safer backing the over and possibly getting out with a 3-0 win instead of relying on Cagliari to find the mesh.
BORUSSIA DORTMUND ML, +260
Let’s be clear: this play should not work. There’s a reason that on the Gabacho Borracho podcast this week, Thomás took RB Leipzig to win this, and it’s because Dortmund is banged up. But Dortmund has owned this fixture ever since RB Leipzig joined the Bundesliga, and even without Erling Haaland, something tells me Dortmund finds a way here. I’m probably going to look foolish here, but I have to back the trend.
LILLE ML, -125
This line is low because Lille has looked nothing like a defending champion this season, but Les Dogues have won three of their past four matches at home and are unbeaten in six home matches on the year. They should have enough to get by a middling Angers side here.