Friday was a strong showing for us, as Marshall and Syracuse scored easy covers and the Red Sox and Devils gave us just enough offense to get the result we needed. Overall, it was four wins out of five, and that sets us up nicely for a morning of soccer bets before the college football buffet that awaits.
Here are my top plays for October 16.
ASTON VILLA-WOLVERHAMPTON “NO” ON BOTH TO SCORE, -115
Wolves have only seen 11 goals scored by itself and its opponents in seven Premier League matches, and six out of seven have seen at least one side shut out. The past three meetings in this West Midlands derby have seen at least one team fire a blank, and there’s a good chance this goes the same way. With Wolves playing solid defense, the under is also a solid play here.
MANCHESTER CITY -2, +100
Burnley has struggled through the first two months of the season, and things are only going to get worse as they return to their personal house of horrors. The Clarets have lost their past five meetings with City by at least two goals, and they’ve lost six straight at the Etihad by two goals or more. There’s no need to overthink this; the Sky Blues should blast Burnley in this one.
BRIGHTON ML, +105
If you caught us on the podcast, you know that one thing we love doing is fading Norwich City. There’s a reason we love to fade the Canaries, and it’s because Norwich is a truly terrible Premier League side that will almost certainly be back in the Championship next season. The Canaries have lost 16 of their past 17 matches in the top flight with one draw, and they’re 0-3-0 at Carrow Road this season. That should be plenty for Brighton, which is actually off to a solid start, to leave with three points.
SC FREIBURG DOUBLE CHANCE, -115
RB Leipzig is showing signs of getting this turned around, but the Red Bulls do not yet have a win away from home. I’m not backing them to get one here, not against a Freiburg side that is unbeaten at its ground and already has a home win over a quality Borussia Dortmund side. Only Mainz can match Freiburg’s mark of conceding just five goals in the Bundesliga this year, so there’s value in backing the hosts here.
MONCHENGLADBACH AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS, +150
Gladbach are playing very well at home right now, and Stuttgart have just one goal away from home in three matches this season. The past two matchups between these teams have both finished 2-1, so I’d rather take a bit of extra insurance and play under 3.5 instead of under 2.5 in this match.