Saturday proved productive on my end, as my main picks went 4-2 and my overall picks went 6-3. I still haven’t hit an upset of the week yet, but I did hit a couple mild upsets in Michigan and East Carolina, so I’m gladly taking that as a win.
Sunday looks like it could be tough sledding, as there aren’t a lot of great games available. But we’re going to try anyway; here are my plays for October 3.
VIKINGS +2, -105
Minnesota should not be getting points at home, even against Cleveland. The public loves the way the Browns have looked so far, but Cleveland hasn’t gone into an environment quite as intimidating as what it’s about to see in Minneapolis. The Vikings are a lot better than their 1-2 record suggests, as they should have beaten both Cincinnati and Arizona on the road before smacking around the Seahawks at home. This might be a spreads piece, but I’m backing the Vikings to win.
LIONS +3, -110
I want no part of the Bears and Justin Fields here. The Lions aren’t pleasant to bet on, but they’ve actually played fairly well the past three weeks and will eventually snag a win. This game is likely to be legally considered torture in some nations, but even bad games can result in money, and I think the Lions pull out a cover here.
COWBOYS -5, -110
Carolina on the road minus Christian McCaffery isn’t a place I want to be, even if I’m getting five points to take them. The bubble is going to pop eventually for the Panthers, and I think this is the place that it happens. Dallas looked very good against Philadelphia and has generally looked like the class of another weak NFC East. I think the Cowboys can get the cover here.
PACKERS -6, -110
As long as the Packers don’t trip over themselves again, they should have no problems handling a weak Steelers offense. Pittsburgh is not looking good when it has the ball, as Ben Roethlisberger’s best days of football are clearly behind him. Green Bay at home giving less than a touchdown to this offense should be a cover as long as the Packers play their game.
DOLPHINS -2, -110
I hate everything about this game and will likely bet the under, but the bottom line here is that I trust none of the Colts’ quarterbacks. Carson Wentz is on two weak ankles, Jacob Eason makes bad decisions with the ball and Brett Hundley is Brett Hundley. Miami doesn’t look good right now, but Indianapolis looks worse, so this is the way I want to take this one.
RAMS -3.5, -110
Arizona’s record is inflated. The Cardinals should not have beaten Minnesota and only escaped Jacksonville because the Jaguars have no idea how to win. Plus, Kliff Kingsbury has shown nothing to suggest he can match wits with Sean McVay. And I only have to give 3.5 in Los Angeles with the Rams? Yeah, I’m all over that.