When things don’t go my way on Moneyline Monday, that’s usually not a good sign for the week. Actually, Monday ended up working out for me because I chose to flip the line on Cardinals-Brewers and won three units, but that’s not how I judge things here. So we’ll try to bounce back with Tuesday’s picks, as we try to figure out who’s going to be scoring during these pennant races and soccer battles. Here are my picks for September 21.
CARDINALS-BREWERS O7.5, -110
These low numbers aren’t really working for Brandon Woodruff anymore, as he’s allowed four or more runs in consecutive starts. The over has cashed in five of Woodruff’s past eight starts (with one push), so it seems pretty likely that this one’s going to go over the total as well. Jake Woodford has been inconsistent on the hill, so with this low number, I want to push for the over.
RANGERS-YANKEES U8.5, -110
The Yankees have played under in five of their past seven, and the two exceptions were because Cleveland’s hitters went crazy and hit the number by themselves against New York. Texas isn’t likely to hit anywhere near as well as Cleveland did, so I’m expecting this one to stay under the number now that New York has reverted to its early-season style of weak hitting.
PIRATES-REDS O9, -110
Mitch Keller hasn’t done well at all against Cincinnati, and Tyler Mahle hasn’t done well at pitching in Cincinnati. This gives rise to a theory that it’s not so much pitching in Pittsburgh that doesn’t work for Keller as it is pitching in small ballparks, as Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati and PNC Park in Pittsburgh play similarly. In either case, both pitchers have struggled mightily in Cincinnati, so runs should be coming here.
CHICAGO-NEW ENGLAND O2.5, -160
There’s no way that New England shoots as poorly as it did last time out against Columbus. The Revolution outshot the Crew 33-6, but the final ended up just 1-1 because the Revs saw 26 of their shots not trouble Columbus keeper Eloy Room in any way. New England is too good on offense to keep putting up low-scoring showings, and they should get back on track against Chicago. The Fire have shipped 40 goals this season, ahead of only Cincinnati and Toronto in the East, so goals should be coming here.