If we have another morning like we did last week, we’ll all be pretty thrilled, as all three European picks cashed and we even had a correct score call from Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen to steal first place for the week and cash nine units at once. It won’t be easy to replicate that, but after a strong Friday that saw us hit four of five picks, including two for plus money, we’re definitely doing something right at the moment. Here are my best bets for August 21.
BRIGHTON TO WIN AND OVER 2.5, +195
Watford came through for me on the over last time out against Aston Villa, but I’m expecting the Hornets to come out on the wrong end this time around. Brighton has become an excellent attacking side and successfully turned around its opening match against Burnley, overcoming an early deficit to win 2-1. The Seagulls are still seeing some issues with luck deserting them, as they’ve conceded in their past five games. With Watford coming off a three-goal performance, I think they can do a share of the scoring and push this over the total, but I like Brighton to take all three points.
ASTON VILLA TO WIN AND BTTS, +230
Aston Villa’s defensive issues are well known, which made the over an easy cash in a five-goal game. I can’t see Villa keeping a clean sheet here, but I do think the Lions can bounce back and get a win against the Magpies. Villa’s second-half comeback against Watford showed that this team can still score without Jack Grealish, and Danny Ings has to be anxious to build off scoring in the final minute last week.
EINTRACHT FRANKFURT -1.5, +140
The Eagles struggled badly against Borussia Dortmund, but there’s a big drop in quality between Dortmund and Augsburg. Frankfurt finished fifth a year ago and just missed out on the Champions League, and this is still a strong side that simply ran into a giant playing great soccer. The Eagles put home two goals last week and have won three straight against Augsburg by at least two goals, so this spread is reasonable.
ATALANTA TO WIN AND OVER 2.5, +115
If you’re not following the Italian Serie A, this is one team that’s worth your time. Atalanta are a joy to watch because they’re an attack-first side that usually produces a lot of goals. Against Torino, they’ve done exactly that many times over, as each of the past four matches have seen at least five goals scored. If you want to play for that outcome, it’s +325 and a rather decent play in the circumstances.
NEW YORK RED BULLS WIN TO NIL, +475
Is this aggressive? Of course it is, and perhaps needlessly so, given that you can get RBNY on the moneyline at +210. But New York City really struggles at RBNY’s park, having failed to score in four of its past five trips to New Jersey. With NYCFC battling fixture congestion, the conditions are right for an RBNY victory and a big cash.
ORLANDO CITY AND OVER 2.5, +120
Chicago on the road, Chicago on the road! The Fire should come with a warning label for their away matches, because they have now failed to win in 18 consecutive trips away from Chicagoland, a streak that dates back to pre-COVID. Three of Orlando’s past four home matches have gone over 2.5 goals, and Orlando came out the winner each time, so the Lions should be able to hit this one.