Monday and Tuesday have been pretty volatile as of late, but with a full set of games on the docket, we should be able to get things going in the right direction again for these totals. Here are my best total plays for August 17.
REDS OVER 5.5, +125
I thought Kyle Hendricks would be enough to stop the Cubs from free-falling against Milwaukee, but I was wrong to the tune of a 17-4 loss. The Cubs are a dumpster fire right now, and nothing is going to save them. They’re facing a hot-hitting Cincinnati squad that is now genuinely in the playoff race, as it’s pulled to 1.5 games back of struggling San Diego, and the Reds aren’t likely to blow the opportunity they’ve got to keep making up ground. Cincy shouldn’t have too much trouble hitting a number it’s reached five times in six games.
BLUE JAYS OVER 5.5, -110
The Nationals have dropped 12 of 13 and Erick Fedde has a 5.52 ERA over his past three starts. Washington is clearly just playing out the string of a lost season and doesn’t look like it’s going to be competitive at all over the rest of the campaign. Toronto is looking to get some momentum going, and the Jays boast a bigger run differential than anyone in the AL except the Astros and White Sox. Expect the Blue Jays to get the bats going in this one.
SAN JOSE-MINNESOTA U2.5, -105
Whenever these teams have gotten together, it’s been a goalfest, but things have changed. San Jose has gotten away from its man-marking system, and since then, the Earthquakes have rounded into a pretty tough defensive unit. Six of their past seven matchups have seen two goals or fewer scored, and Minnesota hasn’t been a strong attacking side in this campaign. The Loons have scored just 21 goals in 18 matches in 2021, so there’s a good chance this finishes with two goals or less.
PIRATES-DODGERS U9.5, -110
As long as Wil Crowe gets some kind of help from his defense, the Pirates should be able to keep the Dodgers from doing too much damage. Los Angeles has been letting its opponents hang around as of late, and the Dodgers didn’t do much scoring in their last time out, tagging Pittsburgh for just two runs. Crowe has given up four earned runs or less in each of his past 10 starts, and seven of those saw two or less cross the plate. Pittsburgh’s weak offense probably won’t produce much, so if Crowe pitches well, the under has a great chance.