Thursday’s parlays are always a big risk, and the risk didn’t pay off at all on August 12, as virtually everything that could go wrong did go wrong with all three plays. Friday offers a chance to get back on the saddle, however, and given that the rest of the week has gone pretty well for us, there’s a good possibility that we can pick up at least three wins here and turn the day into a win. Here are my best bets for August 13.
BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH DOUBLE CHANCE, +135
Gladbach has been a thorn in Bayern Munich’s side in recent years, having won three of Bayern’s past four visits to Borussia-Park. The Foals have beaten Bayern at least once in the past four Bundesliga campaigns, and with the Bavarians looking disorganized under new boss Julian Nagelsmann, there’s opportunity here for Gladbach to take this one. If you’re bold enough to play it, Gladbach to win offers a lot of value at +400, but getting a win or draw at plus money is just fine with me.
PHILLIES -1.5, +120
Tyler Mahle’s ERA is just over 2 away from home, and he’s only taken the loss once this season. So why would I fade him in this spot? Citizens Bank Park plays a lot like Great American Ball Park, and Mahle isn’t comfortable in the intimate setting. Zach Wheeler, on the other hand, has kept his ERA low despite the problems of pitching in Philadelphia. The Phillies have won eight of his past 10 starts and have won six of his past eight starts by two or more. I think the runline holds value.
MARLINS AND OVER 7.5, +270
Adbert Alzolay has been a mess lately, and the Cubs haven’t proven to be any better. Chicago has lost nine of Alzolay’s past 10 starts, and it hasn’t really mattered who he’s faced, because the Cubs are clearly in disarray and playing for next season. The Marlins just whacked the Padres and can definitely do the same against the collapsing Cubs. Jesus Luzardo has seen the over cash in five straight games, and given what the Cubs just did against Milwaukee, six seems likely.
PADRES-DIAMONDBACKS UNDER 8.5, -110
San Diego really hasn’t looked right in its past two contests, getting wiped out by both Miami and Arizona. The Padres should be able to get right on defense with Blake Snell on the mound, but facing Madison Bumgarner isn’t really a great way to get the bats going again. The last time Bumgarner faced the Padres, San Diego emerged with a 2-0 victory, and the veteran southpaw has held five straight opponents to two runs or less. Arizona might not win, but Bumgarner should keep this a low-scoring contest.
COWBOYS-CARDINALS UNDER 39, +100
This number keeps pushing higher as people expect the Cardinals to put up some big numbers, but Dallas looked so poor on offense that I really can’t see this total getting this high. Either the Cardinals will have to put up a huge performance, or the Cowboys will have to do their share of the scoring too. Dallas doesn’t have enough depth to score at this pace. Unless Dallas shows a gear it didn’t have against Pittsburgh, this should come in under the number
