Tuesday Totals finally worked to our advantage on August 3, and that makes three successful days in a row. Now it’s Wednesday, and we’ve got baseball and MLS on the slate. Slowly, we’re riding through the summer and getting back to the best time on the sports betting calendar. Here are my picks for August 4.
COLUMBUS-D.C. UNITED OVER 2.5 GOALS, +120
D.C. has lost three of its past five away from home, so if you feel risky, you might want to take a shot on Columbus and over 2.5 at +290. But if you’re just looking for plus money, there’s solid value here. D.C. has seen three of its past four road games result in at least three goals, and Columbus has put home two goals in four of its past five home games. The over holds some promise here.
NEW ENGLAND-NASHVILLE DRAW, +250
Picking against the Revolution at Gillette Stadium has been a fast way to lose money, but the Revs won’t be at full strength in this matchup. Carles Gil, New England’s talisman, has picked up a sports hernia and will miss at least two weeks. With Gil on the shelf, New England’s attack becomes a lot less dangerous, and seeing as how Nashville has both been the master of the draw and hasn’t won a road match all year, a sharing of the points seems likely.
ORLANDO CITY AND BOTH TO SCORE, +210
Orlando and Miami have never played a match with fewer than three goals scored, nor has either side ever been shut out in this budding rivalry. Orlando has won its past two home matches, while Miami has dropped its past three away from home, so this is a good time to be aggressive. I’m not worried about the prospect of a shutout: both sides have scored in six of Orlando’s past seven matches, and the Lions have conceded eight times in five matches all-time against the Herons.
PADRES-ATHLETICS UNDER 8.5, -120
This worked well for us in the opposite direction on Tuesday, but it only just snuck over the number. The pitching matchup should be a good one between Joe Musgrove and Frankie Montas, and it’s unlikely that either side will bring much in the way of fireworks given the consistency both hurlers have shown. Of course, I thought Sean Manaea would handle San Diego on Tuesday, and that didn’t work (luckily, Blake Snell bailed me out), but I do feel good about this under bet.
PHILLIES-NATIONALS UNDER 5 F5, -110
If you watched the first two games of this series, you’d know that the fact that both went over wasn’t because of the starters. The teams combined for seven runs in the ninth inning of the series opener and had just one run between them in the first five innings of each of the first two games. Even when the opponent is Mitch Keller, the Phillies are still doing almost all of their damage off of bullpens. This could also be a brilliant live-bet opportunity after the Phillies struggle through the first few innings and drag down the total.
TIGERS ML, +125
The Tigers have won three of Casey Mize’s past four home starts, and Eduardo Rodriguez is coming off getting shelled by Toronto in his most recent start. With Detroit’s recent ascendance, there’s solid value on the underdog to come out with a win here.