There’s no way to sugarcoat last Tuesday: it was bad. The one pick that didn’t end up a loss was a rainout, resulting in a disastrous day. Luckily, the rest of our days have been pretty good as of late (Moneyline Monday was again 3-1), so we can withstand a bad day here and there. We just don’t want to make it a habit, so we’ll try to bounce back with these picks for August 3.
PHILLIES OVER 4.5, -115
Patrick Corbin continues to struggle through an awful 2021, and he’s coming off getting whacked by the Phillies for four runs and eight hits in his most recent start. Even if Corbin does pitch well, he’s not likely to go more than six innings, and once he departs, that leaves the Phillies’ hitters against the Nationals’ gas can of a bullpen. On Monday, my Phillies ML bet cashed because the Phils struck for five runs off the Nats in the ninth and turned a 3-2 deficit into a 7-3 lead. I think the Phillies can get five runs against this slate of pitchers.
ROYALS-WHITE SOX UNDER 9, -115
You usually don’t want to fade the over when one team’s ERA ranks 26th, but Kansas City’s pitching is actually doing a decent job as of late. The Royals don’t tend to score a lot, and their pitching has done a credible job against the Blue Jays and the White Sox in recent games. The under is 9-1 in Kansas City’s past 10 games, and the Pale Hose haven’t exactly been lighting up the boards either, as the under has gone 6-2-2 in Chicago’s past 10. With Dylan Cease pitching well, this number looks a shade too high.
PADRES-ATHLETICS OVER 8, -110
These teams lit up the boards against each other at Petco, and given that the Athletics tagged Snell for seven runs in one of those two games, there’s a good chance this one goes over the number as well. The Padres might not do much of their share of scoring against Sean Manaea, but unless Snell returns to a form he hasn’t really shown in 2021, they won’t have to for this bet to cash.
GIANTS-DIAMONDBACKS OVER 9, -135
Madison Bumgarner will likely do his part to keep Arizona in the game, but the Diamondbacks don’t really have much of anything behind him in terms of pitching. The D-Backs have the worst team ERA in the game, and San Francisco has scored at least five runs in each of its past five games. Johnny Cueto also didn’t have much success here the last time he pitched in Phoenix, as Arizona tagged him for five runs. The over holds a good amount of value here.
CUBS-ROCKIES UNDER 11.5, -110
Kyle Freeland has been Mr. Under as of late, and usually, it hasn’t even been a close call. In his past seven starts, the under has cashed all seven times, and only one was even within three runs of the over hitting (a 9-2 loss to Los Angeles with an 11.5 total on July 17). Zach Davies should be able to do his part to keep the score down, and the Cubs traded away 40 percent of their home runs for the year, so the elevation shouldn’t come into play too much here.
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