GAME INFORMATION: 7:20 P.M., SATURDAY, JULY 31 AT TRUIST PARK, ATLANTA
BETTING ODDS: BREWERS -160/BRAVES +140
TOTALS: OVER 7.5 -110/UNDER 7.5 -110
STARTERS: BRANDON WOODRUFF (RHP, 7-5, 2.14 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) vs. KYLE MULLER (LHP, 2-3, 2.55 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)
One team is definitely a contender for the NL pennant, while the other believes it’s a contender based off nothing more than its weak division. Atlanta decided to buy at the trade deadline despite being two games under .500 because it believes that it’s still possible to catch the Mets and Phillies and then try to parlay a playoff appearance into a shot at the title. But the Braves haven’t gotten any consistency going, as they’re just 5-5 in their past 10 games. Milwaukee has been consistently powerful as of late, scoring 37 runs in its past four games. Granted, three were against the Pirates, but the Brewers also blasted the Braves for nine runs on Friday, and with their pitching continuing to shine, there are plenty of reasons why the Brewers are closing in on the Giants for the NL’s best mark.
MAIN BET: BREWERS ML, -160
Reason: There’s an emerging pattern with Woodruff in 2021: he pitches two gems and then an average third game. The last time out was his average game, as he gave up three runs to the White Sox and got no help from his offense in defeat. But the Brewers have won three of his past four gem starts and are hitting the ball so well that it’s difficult to see the Braves holding them at bay, even with Muller pitching well to date. Milwaukee should emerge victorious here.
INNINGS BET: UNDER 4.5, -110
Reason: If Woodruff pitches the way he can, Milwaukee will have to do almost all the scoring, and that means that the Brewers will have to produce a lot of runs off Muller. So far, that’s been a tough task, as Muller hasn’t given up more than three runs in any of his appearances. He hasn’t pitched as well at home as he has on the road, so this bet does give me a slight pause, but as long as Woodruff only gives up one run, the under looks pretty solid.
TOTALS BET: BREWERS OVER 4.5, -110
Reason: Milwaukee has been pounding this number as of late, and it looks like it’s worth going to the well again. Atlanta improved its bullpen a little, but not enough to shut the Brewers down completely. Muller usually only lasts four to five innings, so every member of the Milwaukee lineup should get a chance to do something off the Atlanta bullpen. That will likely make the difference.