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Five for Friday: Best Bets for July 30

We had one big success on Three-Play Thursday, as the aggressive parlay cashed to bring home 6.7 units in dominating fashion. Two of the three wins were shutouts, and the third was the Blue Jays’ rout of the Red Sox. With the other two just missing, seven out of the nine individual picks made on Thursday were winners. So let’s keep it going with this week’s Five for Friday, which hasn’t been quite as successful as Monday but is a darn sight better than Tuesday.


Reason: Turns out the Tigers are strong when one of two things are true: they’re facing Minnesota, or they’re playing at home. Detroit has now won 10 in a row at Comerica Park, and the Tigers cruised past the Orioles on Friday night in a 6-2 win that was never in doubt. They’ll send Tarik Skubal to the hill, and the left-hander has been solid at home this year, owning a 3.50 ERA at Comerica and helping the Tigers earn a win in five of his past six starts. As long as he’s not facing the White Sox, he’s been a great option at home.


Reason: How bad has Vince Velazquez been lately? Shield your children’s eyes: the Phillies’ starter has given up 19 runs in his past 15 2/3 innings, and that’s with five shutout innings against Miami in there. Meanwhile, the Steelers — I’m sorry, I meant the Pirates — just got stomped 28-3 over the course of three games against Milwaukee and its fine pitching staff. Velazquez isn’t pitching anywhere near as well as the Brewers’ hurlers, which means the Pirates should both score and give up a fair amount of runs.

REDS OVER 4.5 RUNS, +145

Reason: Bullpen game. Don’t read too much into Carlos Carrasco being the nominal starter for the Mets here; he’s going to be on a strict pitch count as he finally makes his debut for New York after tearing his right hamstring before the season. The Mets will likely limit him to four innings, and that means the Mets’ bullpen will have to silence a Cincinnati lineup that’s scored five or more in seven straight games. I don’t see that happening.


Reason: Something’s off here with Columbus a big underdog at New York City. Yes, Columbus is still down Gyasi Zardes, who gave us a nice win on U.S.-Qatar on Thursday by scoring the only goal, but the Crew are unbeaten in their past six matches. Plus, one of those six was a 2-1 home win over NYCFC. In fact, the Crew have won three straight over City, including a 2-1 win at Yankee Stadium in May. They might even win this one outright, which carries +475 odds.


Reason: Atlanta is really struggling to score as of late. The Five Stripes have been shut out in five of their past seven matches and have fired a blank in two of their past three meetings with Orlando. The Lions aren’t exactly roaring either, making under 2.5 goals another appealing play at +100. These teams drew 0-0 earlier this year, and given that Atlanta has five road draws and no wins away in 2021, I think there’s a good chance of an Orlando clean sheet.

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