The Open Championship: Pace’s Picks

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Before we get into my picks, I have beef with people that get upset about what to call the British Open.

Every year I come over here, there’s a debate on if it’s the Open or British Open. The Earl of Airlie referred to it as the British Open when awarding Bobby Jones the Claret Jug in 1930 at Hoylake. Both are acceptable 😎

— Phil Mickelson (@PhilMickelson) July 13, 2021

That little tournament across the pond next week — What do you call it?

— Samantha Marks (@SamanthaSMarks) July 8, 2021

Call it whatever the hell you want. Just don’t call it the Masters. But the Karin’s or the Todd’s out there on Twitter correcting people just piss me off. Whatever people want to call it is whatever to me. Regardless it’s golf’s final major of the year, so here’s my favorite plays for the tournament. And I promise, I’ll bring better vibes for the remainder of the blog.

Outright winner: Jordan Spieth (+1800)

I hate to do this to myself and to anyone else tailing my picks but I do like Jordan Spieth this weekend. I’ve bet on him this season and it hasn’t worked out for me and then when I don’t bet on him, he wins. But Spieth was in the headlines earlier this season for his good play and while that’s kind of cooled off, I think he has the creativity to find ways to come out ahead this weekend.

Outright winner (3 chances): Jordan Spieth/Viktor Hovland/Tyrrell Hatton (+650)

A lot of people are on Spieth this week and rightfully so. He has the creativity to deal with shots on uneven lies and this course (Royal St George’s Golf Club) suits him well. Viktor Hovland won at Mayakoba and Puerto Rice where playing a wind ball was extremely important. He has pure ball striking ability and I could see him come out on top this weekend. Tyrrell Hatton has two top-6 finishes at the Open Championship since 2016. In 2019 he finished T6 and T5 in 2016.

To miss cut: Dustin Johnson (+350)

Dustin Johnson hasn’t been near the top of a leaderboard in quite some time. He only has one top-10 finish in his last 10 starts and he’s missed the cut in each of his past two majors. He has one win this season but that came at the Saudi International and his last PGA Tour win was the 2020 Masters. Johnson has missed the cut twice at the Open Championship and his last five finishes at this tournament have gone: T49, T9, T54, MC and T51.

Winning margin: 3 strokes (+550)

This is always a fun bet to make, however, maybe I should stop making it because I don’t think I’ve cashed on it once this season. In the previous 10 Open Championship’s, four times someone has won by 3 strokes. Jordan Spieth did is most recently in 2017. Henrik Stenson did it in 2016, Phil won by three in 2013 and Darren Clarke did it two years earlier. For all you math wizards out there, 40 percent of the time a golfer wins this major by three strokes. At least that’s what the last 10 Open Championship’s have told us.